The battle for stablecoin yields becomes a key variable as the window for US crypto legislation approval tightens

【BlockBeats】A recent analysis report released by Wall Street institution Bernstein reveals a concerning phenomenon: the window for the US to advance the crypto market structure bill is rapidly closing. Analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out that the core issue is not the definition of digital commodities or DeFi regulation as outlined in the Clarity Act, which, while contentious, are not major obstacles.

The real trouble stems from another direction—the intense confrontation between the banking sector and the crypto industry over stablecoin yield issues. There is a complex background here: last year, the Trump administration signed the GENIUS Act, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying yields directly to users but allows crypto platforms to distribute yields to users through affiliated channels (typically annualized 2%-4%).

The banking industry’s logic is straightforward—they see these yield incentives as a deadly threat to traditional deposits. Considering the current size of the stablecoin market has exceeded $275 billion and could grow to trillions, this area is classified as “systemically important,” and the banking sector’s concerns are not unfounded.

The crypto industry, on the other hand, views this from a different perspective. They believe reopening this debate is akin to overturning existing legislative compromises, which is anti-competitive and violates free market principles. More critically, if the current yield arrangements cannot be maintained, it could undermine the entire incentive structure of the stablecoin ecosystem.

The problem is that both sides see this as an inviolable red line. Bernstein’s analysis warns that if a compromise cannot be reached in the short term, the risk of bill delays or even failure will significantly increase. The timeline is also tight—substantial progress on the bill must be made by the second quarter of 2026 at the latest, or political changes from mid-term elections could completely alter the situation.

Although the Trump administration currently shows a pro-crypto stance, creating a favorable environment for the industry, Chhugani emphasizes that if this yield dispute continues to escalate, the momentum for advancing the bill could stall. In his words, we are currently in a “critical window”—there is little time left for negotiations and compromises.