#比特币宏观资产属性 Bitcoin's ten-year increase of 27,701% is indeed eye-catching, but the data behind this warrants a closer look.

The debate over the 10-year versus 4-year time window is essentially meaningless—the key difference lies in the supply mechanism. Gold and silver prices tend to converge toward production costs over the long term, and supply expands as prices rise; Bitcoin's hard cap of 21 million coins makes its scarcity attribute entirely different. This is not simply a race for higher returns but a fundamental difference between asset classes.

What is more worth noting is the phenomenon in 2025—the prices of precious metals hitting new highs while Bitcoin remains relatively stagnant, alongside the US dollar index falling nearly 10%. What does this contradiction point to? According to Arthur Hayes's logic, Fed easing plus dollar depreciation should simultaneously boost all scarce assets. But now gold and silver are rallying, while Bitcoin is consolidating. This suggests the market may be re-pricing risk assets, or there is a structural change in the allocation of macro liquidity.

Follow-up points: the pace of the dollar's continued depreciation, whether the premium on precious metals can be sustained, and changes in institutional capital allocation among scarce assets. These are the key signals for judging Bitcoin's performance in the next phase.