The crypto market signals weakness in the US economy: here's why experts see Bitcoin on the rise

US employment data released on December 16th surprised markets with worse-than-expected results. The unemployment rate reached 4.6%, surpassing both the forecast of 4.5% and the previous figure of 4.4%. Despite the creation of 64,000 new jobs in November—above the expected 50,000—the divergence between nominal employment growth and rising unemployment has raised widespread concerns. With 710,000 more unemployed compared to November 2024 and almost no new hires since April, the US employment landscape shows clear signs of slowdown.

What it means for scarce assets like Bitcoin

Crypto sector analysts interpret these signs of economic weakness as catalysts for an imminent crypto bull run. Michaël van de Poppe, a recognized market analyst, emphasized that the contraction in employment is bad news for the US economy but potentially positive for Bitcoin and scarce assets. The underlying logic is simple: in the face of weak economic indicators, the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement expansionary measures, including further rate cuts and liquidity injections through short-term asset purchases.

Another significant trader in the sector, Bull Theory, predicts that the Fed will increase monetary easing in 2026, replicating the dynamics that characterized previous economic cycles. This outlook fuels widespread optimism: when the “money printer” kicks in, investors traditionally turn to limited-supply assets like Bitcoin to protect their wealth from currency devaluation.

The labor market weakens, but with important nuances

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, highlighted the underlying sector stagnation behind the aggregate numbers. Only the healthcare and construction sectors continued hiring, while all other sectors experienced employment stagnation or contraction. This pattern suggests a fragile economy, artificially supported by specific sectors rather than broad and sustainable growth.

The Kobeissi Letter agreed with this analysis, concluding that “the labor market continues to weaken.” Additionally, Long pointed out a slowdown in wage growth parallel to the deterioration of employment conditions—a recessionary mix that historically pushes monetary authorities toward accommodative policies.

Bitcoin’s reaction to macroeconomic data

At the moment of the data release, Bitcoin immediately reacted positively, reaching $90.41K with a 1.84% gain in the three hours following the announcement. This movement precisely reflects analysts’ expectations: the weakening of US economic fundamentals is priced in as a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies.

From a technical perspective, however, Bitcoin remains in a critical consolidation phase. The price is testing the 50-hour exponential moving average (1H50EMA), trading below this short-term trend indicator. A decisive break above the 1H50EMA on four-hour and daily timeframes would signal the technical confirmation needed to continue the crypto bull run.

The macro-monetary axis aligns in favor of cryptocurrencies

The broader architecture of the US economy is pushing market participants toward bullish positions on Bitcoin. With the Fed already in easing mode (as confirmed by Jerome Powell at the December 14 FOMC meeting), further signs of economic weakness shorten the timeline for more aggressive interventions. In this context, scarce and decentralized assets like Bitcoin serve as a natural hedge against imminent monetary expansion.

Meanwhile, the crypto sector continues to gather positive news from mainstream actors. Initiatives such as the launch of stablecoin regulation by Visa in the United States—which will utilize USDC from Circle and Arc Blockchain—signal an increasingly deep integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial infrastructure.