In December, the US non-farm payroll data was released again, once again contradicting market expectations. Only 50,000 jobs were added, compared to the expected 70,000. The gap is significant. The unemployment rate, however, fell to 4.4%, which looks good, but the story behind it is the key.

Numbers tell the story. November’s employment data was revised downward, with the result dropping from 56,000, which is quite bleak. Even more exaggerated is that the total employment growth for all of 2025 is only 584,000 — the worst year since 2003 (excluding the pandemic year). Hiring in manufacturing and services is slowing down, companies are less willing to expand, and the high-interest-rate environment is suffocating everyone. Consumer spending is also weakening, and this chain reaction results in sluggish job growth.

Seasonal adjustments and weather fluctuations may have amplified the data volatility, but this does not change the fact: the labor market is soft. Market concerns about a recession are intensifying, and many expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 to stimulate the economy. However, the market has not completely collapsed yet; resilience remains.