$1.3 billion withdrawal in four days: Cryptocurrency market sentiment sharply shifts, with BTC and ETH as the main outflows

According to the latest news, the weekly report released by CoinShares shows that digital asset investment products experienced a $454 million outflow last week, with a total outflow of $1.3 billion over the past four days. This shift is particularly notable because it nearly offsets the $1.5 billion inflow in the first two days of 2026. Behind this rapid change in market sentiment is investors’ concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut prospects in March.

The True Picture of Fund Outflows

Last week’s outflows were not evenly distributed but showed a clear differentiation.

The $405 million outflow of Bitcoin is the main driver, accounting for 89% of the total outflow. This reflects a phenomenon: when market sentiment turns pessimistic, large-cap cryptocurrencies tend to be the first to be sold off by investors.

How Macroeconomic Factors Break Market Confidence

The trigger for this round of fund outflows is clear: whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected in March. According to quick news analysis, this concern stems from recent macroeconomic data releases. Although the news did not specify which economic data, such worries typically involve employment figures, inflation indicators, and other core economic metrics.

From Bitcoin’s price performance, we can see the actual impact of these concerns. Currently, BTC is priced at $90,571, down 2.46% over the past 7 days. Although the decline seems modest, combined with the $405 million outflow, it indicates that selling pressure is real.

Differentiation: Why Are Small-Cap Coins Attracting Funds Against the Trend?

It is worth noting that while BTC and ETH experienced significant outflows, XRP, Solana, and Sui absorbed funds. Several possible explanations for this differentiation include:

• Investors are hedging risks by shifting from large-cap to mid- and small-cap coins seeking opportunities
• These coins may have fundamental support (such as ecosystem development, technological updates, etc.)
• Some funds might be engaging in rotation trading rather than completely withdrawing from the market

Overall, the inflow of $562 million into small-cap coins (45.8 + 32.8 + 7.6 million) is not enough to offset BTC’s outflow but indicates that the market has not fallen into full panic; rather, it is undergoing structural adjustments.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

From now until March, the Federal Reserve’s policy signals will be crucial in determining market direction. If macroeconomic data continues to weaken, the market may reprice expectations of rate cuts, affecting fund flows. Conversely, if economic data improves, expectations for rate cuts may be postponed, which will have different implications for the crypto market.

Summary

Last week’s $454 million outflow marks a clear shift in market sentiment. The significant outflows of BTC and ETH reflect investors’ cautious attitude in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty, while the contrarian inflow into small-cap coins indicates that the market has not completely lost confidence but is reallocating risk. This differentiation reminds us that the direction of the crypto market depends not only on market sentiment itself but is also deeply influenced by macroeconomic cycles. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to Federal Reserve policy developments and economic data performance.