#密码资产动态追踪 The recent market move in BTC was incredible—92488 surged up, then quickly dropped to 91766. It’s clear that both bulls and bears are really battling here. Is it a trap for the bulls or a genuine decline? Let’s analyze from three perspectives.

**Candlestick Analysis Is the Most Straightforward**

The 1-hour chart closed with a bearish candle, with the high at 92488 precisely hitting the upper band of the BOLL indicator, then it pulled back. This is essentially technical profit-taking pressure, a normal operation. But interestingly, after falling to 91766, the price still managed to stay above the MA30 (90849) and EMA30 (90949), indicating that the bulls still have some strength.

On the MACD, the DIF (228.6) is far ahead of DEA (110.6), and the golden cross momentum is still quite strong. Although the red histogram has shrunk a bit, this is called "digesting profit-taking"—not a bad sign, just a normal correction rhythm. The BOLL bands are narrowing, and the price might retest the midline at 90961, which is a healthy correction.

The key support zone is between 90800-91000 (MA30 + BOLL midline), with resistance at 92500. As long as the lower support holds, the trend remains intact.

**Smart Money on the Chain Is Not Idle**

In the past 24 hours, net outflows from exchanges for BTC are about 12,000 coins. What does this indicate? Institutions are accumulating on dips. The holdings of whale addresses have hit a monthly high, retail investors are panic selling, while institutions are betting—this change in chip concentration on the chain signals a bullish on-chain confidence index.

**Macro Factors Provide New Fuel**

The Fed’s rate cut expectations for 2026 are heating up, and liquidity in risk assets is starting to recover. BTC, as a hedging tool, is being sought after. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $850 million today, showing that FOMO among institutions hasn’t faded. Additionally, after the Taproot upgrade, network efficiency improved, and active addresses on-chain increased by 30% YoY, indicating solid fundamentals.

**My View Is Simple**

This correction is just a technical adjustment, not a trend reversal. The market is preparing for a breakout above the previous high.

In the short term, the 91000-91500 range will likely see some consolidation and bottoming out, followed by a rebound. You can stagger your positions, set stop-loss below 90500, and target 92500-94000. Remember: markets are born out of panic.