What's Lighter's Real Valuation Range? KOL Breaks Down the Numbers

Industry analysts and crypto KOL voices have been dissecting Lighter’s market valuation, and the consensus points to a more nuanced picture than simple speculation. Drawing from multiple market signals—Polymarket trading data (showing 2-3 billion USD range), OTC market pricing (90 USD per point), and LIT token pre-market valuations (3.4 USD)—the valuation framework becomes clearer.

Breaking Down the Valuation Layers

The floor scenario sits at 1.5 billion USD, representing the bear case influenced by venture capital entry valuations. This establishes the downside protection level. Moving up the scale, 3 to 4.2 billion USD emerges as the realistic mid-range, derived from aggregating pre-market signals, Polymarket predictions, and points-based back-calculations. This range reflects what market makers and informed participants are pricing in currently.

For the bullish case, valuations could stretch to 7.5 to 12.5 billion USD, contingent on product execution and market adoption. Each tier represents different assumptions about Lighter’s growth trajectory and competitive positioning.

Why Lighter Isn’t Hyperliquid’s Duplicate

A critical distinction that KOL analysis often highlights: these platforms solve different problems. Hyperliquid concentrates on building Web3-native liquidity infrastructure, monetizing primarily through retail trading fees and ecosystem dynamics.

Lighter takes a different architectural approach—it’s constructing decentralized trading infrastructure designed as a connectivity layer. The strategy targets fintech platforms, traditional brokers, and professional market makers, creating pathways that weren’t available before. By maintaining near-zero friction (including zero fees on select spot markets), Lighter positions itself for B2B adoption rather than pure retail competition.

The RWA Catalyst Nobody’s Talking About

Perhaps the most underappreciated variable in Lighter’s valuation math: real-world asset (RWA) trading integration. As tokenized assets—from commodities to securities—mature on-chain, having trading infrastructure that can handle institutional-grade execution becomes strategically valuable. This remains a dormant catalyst that could meaningfully re-rate the project’s long-term potential.

The valuation debate isn’t just about today’s metrics; it’s about which technical and market infrastructures will become essential to Web3’s evolution.