Macroeconomic Data in the Pollution Era: How NFP Shakes Up the Crypto Market and the Real Risks Traders Need to Beware Of

U.S. November Non-Farm Payrolls(NFP) will be announced on December 16th. The market generally expects only about 50,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate may reach 4.4%-4.5%. In this weak outlook, the crypto market faces not only the numbers themselves but also systemic risks caused by declining data quality.

“Data Black Hole” Caused by Government Shutdown

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, October unemployment rate data is completely missing. More problematic is that some components of the November Consumer Price Index(CPI) could no longer be collected, and statistical agencies were forced to adjust household survey weights—this directly means that upcoming macro indicators may show abnormally high дисперсія (data dispersion). Authorities have explicitly acknowledged that the reliability of data has significantly decreased in the short term, and certain single figures are difficult to reflect the true economic situation.

What the Market Really Cares About Is Not Employment Numbers

When data quality issues arise, traders’ behavior patterns fundamentally change. FOREX.com warns that any below-expectation NFP results will preemptively trigger market pricing of Fed rate cuts; Mitsubishi UFJ points out that if employment and unemployment rates worsen simultaneously, the dollar selling pressure will persist until the end of the year. But the core issue is: the market will shift to trading policy expectations rather than precise job growth figures—what does this shift mean for crypto assets?

The Double Dilemma Facing the Crypto Market

From BTC’s perspective, weak employment data + early rate cut expectations can support medium-term liquidity, which is good news. But the bad news is that increased data dispersion directly raises short-term volatility expectations for the dollar exchange rate and interest rates. In a high-volatility environment, leveraged positions are extremely fragile—an unexpected difference in data interpretation can trigger large-scale liquidations.

Bitunix Analysts Warn: Prepare for “Macro Fog”

In this stage of “low credibility macro data,” the winning or losing trades depend not on whether employment growth reaches 50,000 or 100,000, but on whether the data is sufficient to change the Fed’s policy narrative. The crypto market should be alert to risks such as liquidity washouts before and after the event, sudden spikes in abnormal volatility, and institutional funds leveraging macro data uncertainties for revaluation.

In short, recent position management before and after the NFP release should be approached with caution, closely monitoring policy signal shifts behind the data rather than simply chasing the numbers themselves.