Bitcoin's $106,400 Battleground: Where Bulls and Bears Draw Their Lines

The cryptocurrency market is currently at a critical juncture, and Bitcoin is testing the resolve of both bulls and bears around a single pivotal price level: $106,400. As of January 2026, with BTC trading at $90.69K, this support-resistance inflection point has taken on even greater significance—it now sits approximately 17% above current levels, representing the psychological and technical threshold where the next major trend could be determined.

The Anatomy of a Market Pivot

Since early 2024, $106,400 has functioned as one of Bitcoin’s most consequential price anchors. What makes this level extraordinary is not mere coincidence, but the market’s repeated validation of it as a liquidity hub. The price has oscillated through this zone so many times that it now serves dual—and sometimes contradictory—roles: a ceiling that rejects rallies, and a floor that protects declines.

This duality is the hallmark of a true pivot. It’s where buyer and seller liquidity reaches equilibrium, creating what traders call “fair value.” The chart framework reveals that $106,400 roughly corresponds to the median of Bitcoin’s current channel distribution, a mathematical reflection of where institutional and retail participants have repeatedly struck their balance.

The Historical Playbook: How Bulls and Bears Have Battled at This Level

December 2024 – The First Breach: After Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 milestone, bulls pushed decisively through $106,000, only to face immediate rejection. The price briefly touched $107,800 but collapsed back below the pivot on the retest. This was the bear case emerging—a failed breakout that signaled weakness.

January 2025 – Testing Resolve: The pattern intensified with more violent swings. Bitcoin rallied back to $106,400, extended to $108,300, but again failed on the retest. Bulls were getting trapped; bears were establishing control.

May 2025 – The Reversal: Something shifted. By late May, the market no longer treated $106,400 as resistance but as support. The price tested this level eight times total (four from below, four from above) and held firm. Rebounds climbed to $111,900 and $110,300. For the first time in months, bulls appeared to have won the argument. The “floor” held—as long as closing prices stayed above it, the bears couldn’t force Bitcoin into the lower channel.

The Breaking Point (End of May): When $106,400 finally gave way, the repair cycle extended dramatically. This wasn’t a minor pullback; it was the market recalibrating after the pivot shifted from support to supply zone again. The loss of this floor changed the market’s rhythm entirely.

June 2025 – Role Reversal Redux: Bitcoin dipped below $106,400 mid-month but faced four rejection attempts from below, with one intraday breakout false signal. By month-end, the level was reclaimed with increasing stability. The market was respecting the pivot again. This orderly retest behavior—where price moves don’t overshoot dramatically—is a telltale sign that the market truly values the price level.

From Pivot to Peak: The $126,000 Event

The confirmation and holding of $106,400 in June opened the floodgates for bulls. Bitcoin entered a price discovery phase, ultimately setting a cycle high of $126,000. This wasn’t a random number; it was the logical next target once the pivot switched from resistance to support. The framework was working.

October’s “Trump Trade” Shock and What Followed

The October 10 “tariffs event” sent shockwaves through markets. Bitcoin plunged sharply from its cycle highs, rapidly descending back to $106,400. Here’s where the current narrative gets critical: from October through early November 2025, Bitcoin has tested $106,400 with unprecedented frequency—eight consecutive retests so far. Each test has been followed by a rapid rebound to the $110,000–$115,000 range, suggesting the level still commands respect from buyers.

But this raises a troubling question for bulls: Has this level lost its power? Historically, such repetitive touching of a pivot without a clean break often precedes a more decisive directional move. The repetition itself is compressing buyer and seller intentions into an ever-tighter coil.

The Trading Logic: A Roadmap for Both Sides

For traders, the implications are clear and actionable:

If Bulls Win (Price Holds Above $106,400): The upper channel targets crystallize: $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, $110,500. Each represents a dashed step on the chart and a zone where previous selling pressure emerged. Momentum would shift decisively higher, and the “path of least resistance” would point toward fresh highs.

If Bears Win (Price Breaks Below $106,400): The focus inverts to lower support zones: $105,500, $104,500, $103,800. These levels have repeatedly absorbed liquidity during previous declines and would become the critical holds for any bear-driven correction. A breakdown here could accelerate selling significantly.

Risk Management at the Pivot

This framework transcends simple prediction—it defines execution zones and clarifies stop-loss logic.

When momentum indicators weaken but the price remains above $106,400, bulls retain the advantage as long as the pivot holds; the upward channel remains viable.

When derivatives positions are overcrowded but the price fails to reclaim this level, bears maintain control until the market “accepts” the price once more.

This provides a pragmatic hedge against conflicting signals from funding rates, leveraged positioning, or short-term sentiment indicators.

The Current Standoff (January 2026)

With Bitcoin at $90.69K, the price is now 17% below the $106,400 pivot—a significant discount that raises questions about the sustainability of the lower range. The eighth retest is approaching, and the market must make a decision: will bulls reclaim the pivot and reverse toward $110,000–$115,000, or will a break below $105,500 signal a deeper structural shift?

The value of $106,400 isn’t assigned arbitrarily; it’s earned through two years of market interactions, validated by repeated price returns, and reinforced by the clear reactions that form around it. The chart channels have reliably depicted intraday support and resistance zones over this period.

However, markets evolve. Pivots migrate as distributions change. The current standoff suggests that this cycle’s “balance point” remains contested between bulls and bears—with the next decisive move likely determined by which side can convincingly reclaim and hold $106,400 on a closing basis.