2025 Token TGE Season Shows Lackluster Momentum, with Majority of Projects Trading Below Launch Valuations

Recent market analysis reveals a challenging landscape for 2025 token issuances. According to findings from the Memento Research team shared by analyst Ash on December 20, the TGE market is struggling significantly. The research tracked 118 tokens launched this year and uncovered a sobering picture: approximately 84.7% of these projects—roughly four out of every five—are currently underwater compared to their initial launch prices.

The data tells a difficult story. When examining fully diluted valuations (FDV), projects have experienced a median decline of 71% from their issuance point. Market capitalizations have contracted even further, dropping by 67% on average. This widespread underperformance stands in sharp contrast to the optimism typically surrounding new token launches.

Looking at the broader picture, only 15% of projects have managed to deliver positive returns since their TGE dates. This stark statistic fundamentally challenges the conventional wisdom that participating in token launches guarantees early-mover advantages. The lackluster results suggest investors who participated at TGE pricing have faced significant paper losses across the board.

These findings carry important implications for how the crypto community views participation in new token issuances. What was once perceived as a reliable pathway for early backers to capture value has become increasingly unpredictable. With such a dominant percentage of projects trading below their launch valuations, TGE participation no longer appears to function as the straightforward early-stage investment opportunity it was traditionally considered to be.