2026 is likely to become a critical turning point in the crypto market. Amid the Federal Reserve's leadership change, weakening employment margins, and policy disruptions during an election year, the density of macro and crypto-related events will significantly increase, likely pushing the market volatility center higher. Monthly CPI and employment data, multiple updates to economic forecasts (SEP) at FOMC meetings, and potential government shutdown risks will continue to amplify cross-asset pricing fluctuations; at the same time, the final implementation phase of MiCA, major protocol upgrades, the Mt. Gox repayment deadline, and the historic inflection point of "about 15 months before the next halving" could also serve as key trigger factors at different stages.

In the context of multiple variables intersecting, 2026 is unlikely to form a sustained one-way trend. Macro and crypto catalysts will alternately dominate market pricing, and the market is more likely to exhibit a "range convergence, event-driven" operational pattern. For investors, the core challenge is not in directional judgment but in how to proactively manage positions and risk exposure around key windows. #加密货币