## Cautious FOMC Decisions Will Not Boost Optimism in Digital Markets – Investor Sentiment Analysis

Recent moves by the US Federal Reserve resulted in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the third such action within a year. However, contrary to widespread expectations, the cryptocurrency market showed a decidedly subdued reaction. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach regarding future steps, suggesting both the possibility of resuming cuts and a pause in 2026.

### Weak Market Response Despite Fed Actions

Analyzing data from perpetual contract trading, we observe a puzzling stabilization of open positions at around $8 billion over the past seven days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has fallen from $94,500 to $90,800 (current notation: **$90.80K, change +0.10% over 24h**), indicating selling pressure despite monetary policy easing.

Ethereum shows a +0.60% change over a one-day perspective, with a trading volume of $461.63M. BTC volume reached $743.65M, but trading activity remains below expectations.

Leverage traders exhibit clear reluctance to increase their exposures. Funding rates on perpetual contracts indicate exhausted demand, especially among retail investors. This caution suggests that the risk of mass liquidation of positions is limited in the short term.

### Options Market Data Aggregation Indicates Bearish Sentiment

Aggregation of information from derivative instruments clearly shows a pessimistic outlook regarding the traditional “Santa Claus rally.” Volatility curve analysis for BTC and ETH options reveals a pronounced tilt toward out-of-the-money (OTM) put options, both in short- and long-term views, with no intrinsic value.

Premiums for bearish positions are as follows:
- Short-term BTC options: 4.4% premium on OTM puts
- Short-term ETH options: 4.8% premium on OTM puts
- 90-day BTC contracts: 5.3% premium
- 90-day ETH contracts: 5.0% premium

These indicators suggest a deep-seated skepticism about price growth prospects before year-end.

( 2026 Forecasts – Market Prices Differ from FOMC

Economic projections issued by the Fed indicate an expectation of only one rate cut in 2026, while market participants price in three potential cuts. This disparity between the Fed’s expectations and market forecasts creates uncertainty.

Powell emphasized that the cumulative effects of the three 75 basis point cuts implemented in 2025 will influence the economy for some time. For cryptocurrency traders, the message is clear – the end of the year is unlikely to bring dynamic gains.

) Incomplete Economic Data Hinders Situation Assessment

The suspension of official US labor market indicators during the government shutdown forced market participants to rely on alternative data sources. This situation subtly affected sentiment, adding an extra layer of uncertainty.

The combination of the Fed’s cautious stance, bearish signals from derivative markets, and limited trader activity suggests that early 2026 may bring investors more questions than certainty.