#比特币将向何方#

No need for unnecessary talk, let’s get straight to the point. Let’s briefly discuss Bitcoin from both a faith-based perspective and a trading perspective, boldly predicting its future. This is a pledge, and you’re welcome to come back in ten years to prove me wrong.

From a faith perspective, if Bitcoin cannot reach an outrageously high price in the long term, the outcome will be zero, with no middle ground. During the intense fluctuations of rapid rises and falls, it will eventually give birth to a super-market-cap monster in the human world, or it will fade away like countless bubbles in human history. If we treat Bitcoin as a phenomenal publicly traded company with 21 million shares, its current market cap still has long-term imagination space. Perhaps one day, we will find that the current price of around 90,000 is still a relatively cheap period. Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity—whether an individual or a team—is no longer important. What matters is that a digital asset that continuously radiates to all of humanity and has formed broad consensus, if not eliminated by revolutionary technological forces from the ground up, is already one of humanity’s greatest inventions. The total market value of this asset will not stop here. With unlimited fiat currency supply and Bitcoin’s fixed quantity, there is an inevitable developmental outcome. Long-term, Bitcoin’s price does not truly enter a bear market. From a faith perspective, I believe that in the foreseeable future, this asset is unlikely to end up zero. It will only restart its bullish march after each intense fluctuation!

From a trading perspective, Bitcoin this year, despite considerable gains, is clearly in a cyclical bear market. The weekly chart shows a complete three-wave upward push, with a stabilization around 80,000 after a correction. There are signs of an upward breakout, but it’s unlikely to hit a new all-time high immediately. A sideways oscillation pattern has already formed on the monthly chart, and even falling back below 80,000 is very easy. Using leverage to bet on the future based on faith is not a good strategy here.

Therefore, from a trading standpoint, if you hold with faith, only holding spot without leverage can help you survive the cycle. In terms of contracts, its only advantage over altcoins is sufficient liquidity. Besides that, there’s nothing particularly enticing about Bitcoin at the moment. If you’re purely speculating, you might choose other more attractive assets to target short-term volatility.

Before Bitcoin decisively breaks below 80,000 or truly surpasses 100,000, it’s not an ideal entry point for long positions. Either wait for a lower left-side or a strong right-side. For now, it’s best to stay on the sidelines.