Bitcoin in 2026: From hopes of rapid growth to the reality of an equilibrium structure

In the first days of 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the $88–$91 thousand range, but this current level well reflects the deep transformations happening under the hood of the market. A clear consolidation structure has replaced the euphoria of late 2024, and analysts face a difficult choice: prepare for a new rally or deepen the correction.

How has institutional demand changed: from aggression to prudence

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETF, which became the main growth driver in the second half of 2024 ( with over $50 billion in net inflows ), cooled significantly at the start of 2026. Large institutional players previously accumulated positions steadily, now showing a more cautious stance: days with outflows appear, strong inflows are interrupted, and the average daily inflow amount has decreased substantially.

This behavior of large funds has become an indicator of the market shifting from an active accumulation phase to a revaluation stage. This is fundamentally different from the frenzy of 2024, when institutional purchases seemed unprecedented.

Ominous signals from trading volumes and position structure

Futures platform data show a troubling picture: the divergence in buy volumes on major trading hubs has noticeably decreased, even though the price is at new highs. Such a scenario occurred in 2021 — prices rose, but trading activity weakened, foreshadowing a sharp decline.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at their lowest since 2018, initially seen as a positive factor. However, merely limiting supply is not enough: without further inflows of new capital and institutional demand, this restriction does not guarantee a price increase.

After forced liquidations at the end of 2025, the market lost a significant part of the leverage that previously supported sharp rallies. Open interest has fallen, leaving the market unstable but less energetic compared to previous cycles.

Disappearing “dolphin” group as a harbinger

Blockchain data reveal an interesting trend: the number of “dolphin” wallets ( with 100 to 1,000 BTC ) has significantly decreased throughout 2026. Historically, this group acts as a buffer during market instability. Similar dynamics were observed at the end of 2021 and early 2022 — right before major downturns. The reduction of this group may indicate disappointment among semi-professional players or their exit from positions.

Three possible scenarios for development

Researchers consider three directions:

Baseline scenario involves building a structure where Bitcoin trades within the $80–$140 thousand range throughout the year. This fundamentally changes the expectations of many retail participants who were counting on six-figure levels.

Optimistic scenario is not ruled out by some consultants, who suggest that Bitcoin could reach around $143 thousand in the next 12 months ( with approximately 58–62% growth from current levels ). This scenario relies on stable ETF inflows, clarification of legislation in the US, and improved global liquidity.

Pessimistic scenario also deserves attention. If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin risks falling to $70 thousand in the coming months. Macroeconomic shocks or worsening global economic conditions could push the price down to $50 thousand.

Structure, not jumps: an investor’s conclusion

The current situation creates conditions for building a price structure of consolidation rather than a surge upward. The combination of declining futures volumes, cooling ETF demand, and macroeconomic uncertainty indicates a market that has entered a new balancing phase.

For those planning positions in 2026, the key advice remains unchanged: expect long-term volatility within a broad range, practice patience, tightly control risks, and avoid overly optimistic expectations. The market structure is the main teacher of this cycle.