XRP at a crossroads: Does historical data suggest an 857% increase possibility or a 50% decline risk?

Ripple XRP’s current situation leaves market participants at a crossroads. The asset recently broke below the $2.0 support level, touching a low of $1.84 intraday, a decline of 3.2%. The current price is $2.05, with a 24-hour decrease of -2.29%, a circulating market cap of $124.19B, and a daily trading volume of $116.17M. Interestingly, despite the Spot-XRP-ETF products experiencing continuous inflows for 32 days, these funds have not been able to prevent the price from declining.

Technical Perspective: Contrasting Views

Well-known trader Peter Brandt has expressed a relatively bearish outlook. He pointed out that XRP has formed a double top pattern—a widely recognized reversal signal. According to Brandt’s analysis, if buyers fail to break through this technical formation, XRP could fall to around $1 to seek support. The coin experienced two clear price peaks in 2025, with the $2.0 level serving as a crucial neckline support.

Conversely, some market analysts remain optimistic. They believe XRP will stabilize at the $2.0 support level. Analyst Steph highlights a key phenomenon: since breaking below the 50-week moving average in October, XRP has been trading below this line for about 66 days. This duration is approaching a historical trigger point.

Possibility of Repeating Historical Patterns

Prolonged stay below the 50-week moving average often signals a strong rebound. According to Steph’s weekly data backtest, this pattern has appeared three times since 2018:

2018 Scenario: After reaching a high of $3.31 in January, XRP fell below the 50-week moving average in June and remained below it for about 70 days. Subsequently, it rebounded over 200% from a low of $0.245 to $0.764.

End of 2021 Scenario: After staying below the 50-week moving average for 49 days, XRP rose nearly 70% in early 2022.

2024 Scenario: The most notable this time. XRP stayed below the 50-week moving average for 84 days before a strong rebound. The price surged to $3.66 in July 2025, an increase of 850%.

If this historical pattern repeats, from the current low of about $1.81, an 857% increase would drive XRP’s price to approximately $17.30. Even with a conservative estimate of 428%, it could push the price to around $9.55.

Mixed Signals from Technical Indicators

Analyst Chart Nerd observed multiple weekly-level indicators showing bottoming features. RSI has entered oversold territory, and MACD indicators are beginning to show signs of stabilization. These all point toward a potential bottom formation process. RSI compression, completion of a five-wave correction structure, and support from long-term trading ranges are all signaling a move toward a rebound.

Insights from ETF Fund Flows

Spot-XRP-ETF has experienced continuous inflows over the past month, with a net inflow of $18.99 million as of December 17. Cumulative inflows this week have exceeded $1 billion. This indicates that institutions and professional investors still maintain interest in XRP.

However, the inflow momentum has slowed in the past two weeks, which explains why the ongoing capital influx has not been able to push prices higher. This mismatch may reflect the market’s wait-and-see attitude toward the timing of a rebound.

Which Way Forward?

XRP is at a crossroads. On one hand, technical formations warn of a possible deep correction; on the other hand, historical patterns and technical indicator bottoming features suggest a rebound is brewing. Investors face a classic high-risk, high-reward decision, with potential gains of 428% to 850% alongside about a 50% downside risk.