My Real Feelings on Day 64 of Playing Prediction Markets

Having persisted on platforms like Polymarket for over two months, today I finally have some insights I want to share.

My recent performance has been pretty good—maintaining a 3-in-2 hit rate. Although I haven't predicted everything correctly, being able to steadily recover is already a win. A couple of days ago, I was close to winning the Philadelphia 76ers outright, but the game was decided by a free throw in the final moments, almost completing a perfect bet. That’s the harsh reality of sports predictions.

I've gradually discovered a pattern: the odds setup often determines the final outcome. It’s not about luck, but about learning to read market liquidity and changes in odds. Before each bet, I ask myself—Is this odds reasonable? What is the market consensus? Are most predictors’ judgments systematically biased?

The charm of prediction markets lies here: they teach you to think through real money battles. There are gains in both wins and losses; the key is to continuously optimize your decision-making framework. Keep going.