Ethereum crypto today: waiting phase above $3,100, but the market remains nervous

The market is breathing, but it is not calm: today’s Ethereum crypto is moving in a fragile equilibrium zone, with price and sentiment still under pressure.

ETH/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume” loading=”lazy” />ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Main scenario on D1: neutral with a slight bullish bias

On the daily, ETHUSDT quotes at 3,112.15 USDT, just below the main pivot at 3,126.96. The price is:

slightly above EMA 20 (3,086.91)

slightly below EMA 50 (3,125.22)

clearly below EMA 200 (3,299.45)

EMA interpretation (D1): the market has recovered enough to get above the short-term moving average, but not enough to regain the medium-long term structure. We are in a “position war” zone: buyers defend 3,050–3,100, but sellers still dominate above 3,200–3,300. It’s not a clean downtrend; it’s more of a rebuilding market.

Daily RSI: lukewarm balance

The 14D RSI is at 52.74.

What it means: there is no euphoria nor overselling. The market is moderately balanced, with a slight advantage for buyers. This confirms the idea of a neutral scenario with a bullish bias: the rebound potential exists, but there is still no real “squeeze” of momentum.

Daily MACD: recovery in progress, but not explosive

The daily MACD shows:

MACD line: 26.83

Signal: 21.67

Histogram: +5.16 (positive)

Implication: the toughest downward phase seems to be behind, the bullish push has reactivated, but we are not in a phase of violent acceleration. It’s more of a gradual recovery than a breakout. As long as the histogram remains positive, buyers control the pace, even if not the long-term trend.

Daily Bollinger Bands: room at the top, but no sudden moves

The D1 Bollinger Bands are:

Mid (20-period): 3,058.60

Upper band: 3,274.67

Lower band: 2,842.53

How to read it: the price is slightly above the middle band but far from the upper band. There is technical space to rise toward 3,200–3,270 without immediately entering overextension. There is no extreme compression, so we are not seeing a “coil” ready to explode: the market moves, but it’s not in trend day mode.

Daily ATR: volatility under control

The 14D ATR is at 91.1.

Practical reading: daily average ranges around 90–100$ are consistent with a moderate directional trading phase, not with panic selling or blow-off tops. In other words, Ethereum today moves enough to be tradable, but it’s not in “roulette” mode.

Daily pivot: key zone 3,080–3,160 USDT

The daily pivots are:

PP: 3,126.96

R1: 3,156.68

S1: 3,082.43

Operational implications: today the real battle is in the 3,080–3,160 range. Holding above S1 keeps the short-term bullish bias alive. Additionally, stable daily closes above PP and attacks toward R1 open space for a push toward the upper Bollinger band (3,250–3,270). A decisive loss of S1 would bring ETH back into the lower part of the central band and would restore the bearish narrative.

H1: momentum cooling down

Moving to the hourly timeframe, we see the buyers’ fatigue in the very short term:

Price: 3,112.60

EMA 20: 3,130.09 (s above the price)

EMA 50: 3,118.41 (s above the price)

EMA 200: 3,117.11 (s above the price)

EMA H1: all averages are just above the price, creating slight intraday downward pressure. It’s not a collapse; it’s more of a short-term pullback from excess. As long as the daily holds, this type of hourly structure suggests profit-taking rather than a structural reversal.

RSI H1: slight downward pressure

RSI 14H1: 44.37.

Interpretation: the indicator drops below 50, signaling that in the very short term, sellers are leading the flow but not dominating. It’s consistent with a consolidation or retracement phase after a small rebound.

MACD H1: slowdown signal

The hourly MACD shows:

MACD line: 9.05

Signal: 10.29

Histogram: -1.24

Translation: the MACD has turned negative on the histogram: the intraday bullish momentum is waning. It’s not yet a breakdown signal, but it warns that buying “at market” at the current level without expecting a pullback is less attractive.

Hourly Bollinger Bands: price toward the lower band

The hourly Bollinger Bands are:

Mid: 3,130.43

Upper: 3,163.37

Lower: 3,097.49

How to read it: the price is below the middle band and not far from the lower band. The market is unloading downward within the range, consistent with profit-taking and modest risk aversion, in line with the overall “Fear” sentiment.

Hourly ATR: moderate intraday volatility

The ATR H1 at 23.52 indicates average hourly movements of about 20–25$. It’s a suitable context for intraday trading strategies, such as mean reversion or contained breakouts, not for chasing explosive moves.

H1 pivot: micro-range 3,098–3,137

The hourly pivots are:

PP: 3,122.80

R1: 3,137.42

S1: 3,097.97

Intraday implications: the price is slightly below the PP. As long as it remains above S1, we are in a simple consolidation below resistance. However, a repeated breakdown below 3,098 with volume could open space toward 3,060–3,080, which coincides with the daily central band and the structural support of the daily picture.

15 minutes: more pronounced short-term excess

The 15m is only for timing, and here the message is clear: the micro-momentum is bearish but already quite extended, requiring caution in chasing the move.

Price: 3,112.95

EMA 20: 3,145.69

EMA 50: 3,139.61

EMA 200: 3,117.66

EMA 15m: price below all short-term averages, with the 20 and 50 well above. It’s typical of an advanced intraday pullback. Those entering short here are “late” relative to the ideal move.

RSI 15m: short-term oversold area

RSI 14M15: 30.23.

Interpretation: we are at the classic lower boundary, signaling that the very short-term bearish move is already stretched. It doesn’t mean the price must bounce immediately, but panic buying at the 15m lows generally offers a more favorable risk/reward ratio than selling here.

15m MACD: still active bearish momentum

The 15m MACD is markedly negative:

MACD line: -2.25

Signal: 3.16

Histogram: -5.41

How to interpret: the short-term is still pushing downward; the rebound has not yet started. The combination of low RSI and very negative MACD indicates a terminal phase of a small intraday bearish swing, where new shorts start to have less safety margin.

15m Bollinger Bands and pivot: price toward the lower tail

15m bands:

Mid: 3,152.46

Upper: 3,176.76

Lower: 3,128.16

15m pivot:

PP: 3,120.19

R1: 3,132.22

S1: 3,100.93

Implications: the price is below the central band and near the lower part of the pivot range (S1 at 3,100.93). The zone 3,100–3,105 becomes a key timing level: if it holds, it’s a natural area for intraday rebound attempts aligned with the neutral-bullish bias of the daily. If it breaks, the market could push toward deeper daily supports.

Macro market context: controlled fear

The total crypto market cap is above 3.18 trillion USD, with a 24h change practically flat (-0.12%), but volumes have doubled (+95% approximately). BTC dominates at 56.9%, with ETH accounting for only ~11.8%. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed index stands at 27 (Fear).

What it means for Ethereum today: investors are favoring defense, i.e., Bitcoin and stablecoins, over risk on altcoins. Ethereum, despite being the main smart contract layer, is treated more as “growth” than as a “safe haven.” This explains why the daily can hold up but struggles to turn into a clean breakout: sentiment improvement and a real rotation from BTC to ETH are needed to change gear.

Bullish scenario for Ethereum today

In the bullish scenario, the current move is a simple pullback within a recovery structure, not the start of a new bearish leg.

What needs to happen, practically:

On D1, firm defense of S1 at 3,082$, with daily closes above 3,100$.

Daily RSI maintaining the 50–55 zone, without falling below 45.

Daily MACD remaining with a positive histogram and no downward cross.

On H1, recovery above EMA 20/50/200 around 3,130–3,140, turning the current dip into a “fake dip.”

On 15m, RSI rising above 40–45 and price recovering above PP at 3,120.19 and then above R1 at 3,132.22.

Short-to-medium-term technical targets:

First area: 3,150–3,170 (R1 daily and upper part of the micro-range).

Second area: 3,220–3,270 (near the upper Bollinger band daily).

More ambitious target: reattacking the EMA 200 daily at 3,300$. This would be the real test for a medium-term regime change.

What invalidates the bullish scenario: a decisive daily close below 3,080$, accompanied by daily RSI dropping sharply below 50 and MACD turning negative on the histogram. In that case, the pullback would turn into a new corrective wave, and the market would stop giving the benefit of the doubt to buyers.

Bearish scenario for Ethereum today

In the bearish scenario, the recent rebound is just a “dead cat bounce” within a still heavy long-term context, with the EMA 200 daily above the price acting as a lid.

Key conditions for the bears:

Loss and confirmation below S1 daily at 3,082$, with extensions toward 3,050$ and then around 3,000$.

Daily RSI slipping below 45, indicating control is returning steadily to sellers.

Daily MACD closing the positive histogram and crossing downward.

On H1, averages sloping downward and price remaining below 3,120–3,130, turning those zones into intraday structural resistance.

On 15m, any rebounds failing to break above EMA 200 (3.117–3.120) and short-term pivots, forming lower highs.

Bearish targets:

First step: 3,050$ (short-term supports and previous congestion).

Second step: 2,950–2,900$, lower part of the recent range.

In extension, the price could return toward the lower Bollinger band of the daily (around 2,850$), but this currently requires a significant deterioration of macro sentiment.

What invalidates the bearish scenario: a series of stable hourly closes above 3,140, with the price regaining H1 averages, followed by a daily close above R1 at 3,156$ and especially a confident regain of the EMA 50 daily (3.125$) as support rather than resistance. In that case, shorts at these levels would start to be on the wrong side of the flow.

How to read Ethereum crypto today in terms of positioning

The multi-timeframe picture tells a fairly clear story:

Daily: neutral with a slight upward tilt, in recovery above short-term averages but still below long-term ones.

H1: momentum in discharge phase, moderate bearish pressure consistent with profit-taking.

15m: very short-term bearish swing already stretched, with signals of possible exhaustion.

In other words, those looking at the Ethereum crypto pair today with a few days’ perspective see a market trying to stabilize. Those viewing it with a few hours’ perspective see a ongoing pullback. The two are not contradictory: this is precisely the typical structure of a market trying to shift from defensive to controlled accumulation phase.

The key to not getting burned is respecting current levels and volatility: with a daily ATR around 90$, entering with a 20–30$ error makes a difference only if leverage or position size is excessive relative to your capital. The fear sentiment, increasing volumes, and high BTC dominance remind us that systemic risk exists: Ethereum can perform well, but it’s not isolated from the rest of the market.

In summary, those choosing to take exposure must be aware that uncertainty remains high and that the picture can change rapidly if key supports (3.080–3.050) break or, conversely, if the market finally finds the strength to regain the 3,200–3,300 zone.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a public savings solicitation, or an investment invitation in any way. Trading in crypto markets involves high risks, including the possibility of losing your entire invested capital. Always evaluate your personal situation and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional.