When Does the Crypto Market Moon Change: The Era of Institutional Transition

The Great Shift in the Bitcoin Market

While many observers continue to look for signs of recovery in Bitcoin prices, IOSG analysts are describing a completely different scenario. We are not facing a bullish market peak, but rather a profound structural transformation. The data speak clearly: the market share of institutional investors has reached 24%, while 66% of retail investors have exited their positions. It’s an almost total handover; when the market’s moon phase changes, so does the price setter.

Jocy, co-founder of IOSG, noted that this phenomenon marks the beginning of the institutional era, not its decline. At first glance, 2025 might seem like “the darkest year,” with Bitcoin losing 4.14% year-over-year, but the all-time high of $126.08K tells a different story. That peak was not a speculative bubble but an indicator of the new market structure emerging.

The Accumulation No One Sees

While retail investors focus on short-term price movements, institutions are building positions with a completely different perspective. Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $90.79K, but according to experts, this is not the time for panic, but rather for strategic positioning.

The inflow of approximately $25 milliards through ETFs represents the true thermometer of institutional interest. Despite daily fluctuations, this money continues to enter the market. Retail investors see declines and sell; institutions see long-term opportunity and accumulate. This is the logic of institutional accumulation that most traders still fail to understand.

Jocy emphasizes that many investors are still using the old logic of traditional cycles to interpret this phase. However, when the market’s moon phase changes, the rules of the game also change. The new price determination will not be based on traditional mass psychology but on the institutional need to position in this emerging asset class.

The Political Calendar as a Catalyst

To understand Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months, it is essential to consider the macroeconomic calendar. Historically, election years follow predictable patterns: politics take precedence over monetary policy decisions, creating a more favorable environment for risks.

The first half of 2026 is described as a “honeymoon period” from a political standpoint. During this phase, authorities tend to be less restrictive, regulatory pressures ease, and institutional investors have more maneuvering space. IOSG’s analysis suggests that during this period, institutional allocations will likely peak.

In the second half of 2026, however, political uncertainty could increase volatility. The November election results and their regulatory implications could represent a turning point in the market.

Price Scenarios Based on the Time Horizon

In the short term (3-6 months), Bitcoin should fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000, with institutional accumulation quietly continuing during these swings. It’s not an explosive recovery phase but a silent consolidation.

In the medium term (first half of 2026), if political conditions remain favorable and institutional demand persists, the $120,000-$150,000 range becomes plausible. This would represent a return to historic highs but with a completely different structural foundation: supported by institutional investors, not retail speculators.

In the long term, the critical factor becomes election results and political continuity. Volatility will probably increase in the second half of 2026, but the overall direction will depend on how the new regulatory environment shapes the market.

The Solid Foundation for the Next Wave

What makes Jocy’s analysis fascinating is the reversal of perspective on fundamentals. The ETF infrastructure is better than ever, regulatory clarity is gradually progressing, and blockchain technology developments continue relentlessly. These factors were absent in previous cycles.

When the market’s structure fundamentally changes, the old valuation logic becomes obsolete. The new price-setting power is rebuilt based on this new architecture. 2025 marks exactly this point of transformation: it’s not an end but a new beginning where the market’s moon phase shift signals the transition from a speculative era to an institutional one.

The opportunity for investors is not to jump on short-term price recoveries but to recognize that widespread pessimism often precedes the best long-term positioning. When the structure changes, the winners are those who see the change before others.