## The crypto treasury market faces its moment of truth: Galaxy predicts a massive purge in 2026

The Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) listed on stock exchanges are about to enter a critical consolidation phase. Galaxy Digital has issued a strong warning: at least five companies in this segment could be forced to restructure, be acquired by more established players, or disappear entirely over the next twelve months as the market environment becomes more hostile.

### The fading of a bubble driven by illusory optimism

During 2024 and early 2025, Digital Asset Treasury companies experienced rapid growth. Companies from various sectors rushed to adopt strategies of holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. The environment was favorable: rising prices, more permissive regulation in the United States, and democratized access to the crypto market through ETFs. Many organizations saw this strategy as an opportunity to generate additional returns through staking or market operations.

However, that initial momentum is quickly dissipating. The cycle shift has exposed the structural weaknesses of numerous projects launched without solid planning or medium-term vision. Macquarie analysts have pointed out that the viability of this model critically depends on the market value remaining above the net asset value.

### When the market turns against: the fall of the mNAV

The key indicator to monitor this crisis is the mNAV (market value over net asset value), a metric that compares the valuation the market assigns to each company against the added value of its actual digital assets. When this ratio falls below 1, investors are paying less for the company than the value of its crypto holdings.

Galaxy has documented that a significant number of DATs focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are already trading below this critical threshold. Once this happens, the firm's ability to issue new shares and finance the expansion of its portfolio is severely compromised. Dilution becomes inevitable, and future growth is virtually impossible.

### The harshness of market adjustment

Jianing Wu from Galaxy directly expressed the expected outcome: "After the wave of companies from different sectors becoming DATs to capitalize on accessible financing conditions, the next stage will definitively separate those institutions with coherent strategies and real asset management capabilities from those lacking both."

The contrast will be ruthless. Companies with operational scale, robust capital structures, and clear liquidity planning—such as Strategy and the Japanese firm Metaplanet—have prospects of resilience in this recessionary scenario. In contrast, many companies that entered late without a clear vision will face serious difficulties.

### Saturation as a catalyst for change

The crypto treasury market reached an unsustainable saturation point. Multiple operators were trying to replicate the same strategy without clear competitive advantages. Macquarie analysts explicitly warned: "If the equity premium over NAV erodes or turns into a discount, the model faces significant challenges." This scenario is already materializing.

Although DATs currently represent less than 1% of the total crypto market, their relevance lies in being a thermometer of the ecosystem's health and the solidity of digital asset accumulation strategies in the corporate context. Companies built on solid data capital and real diversification of income will have greater resilience.

### What does this mean for the immediate future?

The era of easy crypto treasury trading is definitively over. 2026 will be the year of truth: only organizations with operational discipline, rigorous financial planning, and a deep understanding of the crypto cycle will prosper. Others will face tough choices: asset sales, forced mergers, or ceasing operations.

Galaxy's message is unequivocal: the market has stopped rewarding pure optimism. Now it rewards substance, solidity, and strategic clarity. The next phase will be brutal for the weak but will create opportunities for those well-positioned.

### Key questions about the evolution of DATs

**What exactly is the function of a DAT company?**
They are publicly traded entities that hold cryptocurrency reserves such as Bitcoin or Ethereum to increase their equity value and generate returns through commercial operations or participation in staking protocols.

**Why is the model under so much pressure now?**
The pressure arises because crypto prices are consolidating at lower levels, and simultaneously the mNAV indicator has fallen below 1 in many cases, which hampers the ability to raise fresh funds and expand positions.

**Where did the initial enthusiasm for DATs come from?**
The boom was fueled by a prolonged bullish cycle, favorable regulatory normalization in markets like the U.S., and facilitation of retail access through products like cryptocurrency ETFs.

**What are the concrete risks for current DAT investors?**
Risks include capital losses if the value of crypto positions declines, the company's inability to finance future operations, liquidity deterioration, and in extreme cases, insolvency and operational closure.