Funds bet on bullish structures: the options market shows signs of moderation

Market research reveals key patterns in the behavior of large funds during the scheduled options liquidation this Friday. With approximately $2.1 billion in BTC and ETH contracts about to expire, the volatility outlook has experienced a notable shift toward containment.

Decline in Implied Volatility: Signal of Normalization

The implied volatility (IV) of both assets has shown significant decompressing. BTC stands at 43% while ETH retreats to 60%, indicating that the market is repricing short-term extreme movement scenarios. This adjustment suggests that traders are moderating their expectations of sharp fluctuations after periods of tension.

Delta Tilt: Converging Toward Balance

Looking at the 25-Delta curve of BTC in the recent period, a recurring pattern of bullish correction is evident. Previous negative values are converging, reflecting that the overvaluation of downside risk is eroding. ETH’s structure maintains a generally negative trend but also shows signs of convergence, pointing to a gradual re-evaluation of risk.

Block Mega-Trade: The Funds’ Main Bet

The most relevant market transaction was the purchase of 3,225 BTC in call options (BTC-300126-100000-C), with a net premium outlay close to $3.05 million. This block operation is not accidental: it reflects that institutional investors are building bullish positions, specifically above critical support levels.

Market Implications

This combined movement suggests that while volatility normalizes and downside risks are repriced, large funds are positioning themselves to capture potential appreciation. The preference for bullish spread structures indicates confidence in the sustainability of key levels, with BTC trading around $90.41K and ETH at $3.10K, setting the context for these strategic decisions.