Bitcoin's $90K Hold and Escape from the Decross Battle: Five Key Points at the End of November

Current BTC Situation: Countdown to Rebound Begins

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $90.97K, facing an uncertain period at the end of November. While recovering from last week’s low of $80,500, it continues to move within a narrow range capped at $88,000. Trader consensus is divided, with a mix of short-term bearish outlooks and modest bullish arguments.

What’s important is that BTC is at a technical turning point. As multiple analysts point out, breaking above $92,000 on the weekly chart could make a rally to $105K–$110K more plausible. The 20-period simple moving average (SMA-20) on the 4-hour chart has also shown recovery over the past two weeks, which is seen as a positive signal among short-term traders.

The Death Cross Crisis: The Significance of the 50-day SMA Crossing Below the 200-day SMA

The biggest challenge facing the current BTC market is the classic bear signal formed on the daily chart — the Death Cross. The signal, where the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on November 15, has market participants cautious, as it suggests a potential long-term trend reversal.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that past Death Crosses have marked local lows in the market, but warns that if this cycle isn’t over, a rebound should start within the next week. If no rebound occurs within a week, the 200-day SMA could become a new target, followed by a further dip and then a significant rally up to the 200-day SMA at $110,130.

Rekt Capital pointed out that the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) is nearly aligning with the macro downtrend line, potentially strengthening resistance. Failing to break above the 50-week EMA could confirm lower highs and signal weakness.

Chart Patterns Indicating a Possible Bottom Formation

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe praises the recent 3-day candlestick chart of Bitcoin as “excellent.” Such patterns typically appear at market bottoms, and given the current sentiment and indicators are even more bearish than during the FTX collapse (late 2022), it’s not surprising if $BTC trades between $90K and $96K next week.

Despite the breakdown of key weekly support levels, some note that the overall weekly structure remains “intact.” This suggests that even with short-term selling, a medium-term bullish scenario could still be possible.

Retail Investors’ Buying Surge: Capital Flows from LTH to STH

On-chain analysis from CryptoQuant shows that BTC supply is rapidly shifting from long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH). While large-scale distribution and selling by long-term investors occur, new speculative entrants are accumulating coins.

In the past 30 days, this transfer has reached 63,000 BTC, with new speculative investors accumulating these coins at high prices. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders dropped to around 0.927 over the weekend — the lowest in 15 months — indicating panic selling among this group.

Conversely, this accumulation at the bottom could also suggest the market is overly oversold, with speculative entry acting as a prelude to a rebound.

Impact of Thanksgiving Week and Year-End Rally on Economic Data

Although US Thanksgiving week is shorter than usual, it’s a busy week with economic data flowing into the market. Key indicators include the Producer Price Index (PPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Q3 GDP, and new unemployment claims, all based on September data.

These figures could influence expectations for the December Fed meeting. Currently, about 70% expect a 0.25% rate cut at the December Fed meeting, though minutes suggest officials are becoming more cautious.

Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company points out that US stocks may be “oversold,” with a typical Santa rally possibly occurring toward year-end. The S&P 500 daily RSI briefly dipped below 35 last week — the lowest since April — supporting the possibility of such a rally.

A New Trend: Cryptocurrencies Leading the Traditional Markets

A notable change is that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has nearly doubled from its lowest point in 2025 (last week) to 19/100 on Monday. While still in “extreme fear” mode, compared to the stock market’s extreme fear at 11/100, cryptocurrencies are showing relative stability.

This is a departure from previous behavior, where negative sentiment in crypto dragged down risk assets overall. Now, the upward trend in crypto may be leading the recovery of risk assets.

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s social media sentiment has fallen to its lowest since December 11, 2023, reaching levels of retail capitulation and panic selling not seen in the past two years. However, this excessive pessimism can also be interpreted as a signal of market bottoming.

This correction is not driven by clear macro factors or news but rather by “structural” movements related to leverage and liquidations. If the market stabilizes, these liquidation pressures could ease, paving the way for a stronger rebound.