Cryptocurrency Under Currents Before the Quantum Era: "Collect First, Decrypt Later" Is the Real Threat

Many people tend to think of a doomsday scenario where quantum computing causes system collapse when discussing its impact on cryptocurrencies. However, industry experts point out that what we should truly be cautious of in 2026 is not such catastrophic outcomes, but an invisible “collect first, decrypt later” attack already underway.

Quantum Doomsday Theory Is Overhyped, But the Potential Risks Have Not Disappeared

According to analyses by multiple blockchain security experts, the threat posed by quantum computing in 2026 remains theoretical, with very limited practical commercial applications. Industry analysts note that about 90% of the quantum crisis theories circulating in the market are driven by marketing hype. Based on technological progress, it will still take at least ten years for a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptographic systems to emerge.

However, this does not mean cryptocurrencies can be complacent. The key issue is that the public key cryptography systems relied upon by blockchain networks have inherent design vulnerabilities.

ECDSA Is the Most Fragile Link

From a technical perspective, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used by networks like Bitcoin is the most vulnerable component. In comparison, the quantum resistance of SHA-256 hash functions is much stronger. This means that even if quantum computers do become a reality, they will prioritize cracking ECDSA first.

Even more dangerous is the habit of address reuse. When users repeatedly initiate transactions from the same address, the public key of that address is exposed multiple times on the blockchain. According to on-chain data, approximately 25%-30% of BTC (nearly 4 million coins) are stored in addresses whose public keys have been exposed. These addresses become prime targets for quantum attacks.

The Real Threat: Hackers Are Racing Against Time to Collect Data

Compared to systemic collapse, industry insiders are more worried about a covert but deadly threat—attackers are exploiting the window of opportunity before quantum computing matures to mass-collect encrypted data and transaction records. Their plan is to decrypt these collected data in bulk once the technology becomes capable. This two-stage attack strategy of “collect first, decrypt later” is more covert and terrifying than direct system intrusions.

This scenario means that even if your assets seem safe now, the stored public key information has already become a future “prey list.”

The Community Has Started Taking Proactive Measures

In response to these risks, the crypto community has begun taking active steps. Some wallet providers have announced plans to upgrade their underlying cryptographic algorithms to offer quantum-level security protections. Meanwhile, security experts also advise users to avoid address reuse, regularly migrate funds to quantum-resistant wallets, and stay updated on official security upgrade announcements.

While 2026 will not mark the end of the quantum era, quantum computing has already become a high-level threat in the field of cryptographic security. Instead of passively waiting, it’s better to start reviewing your asset security practices now.