## The Business Cycle in Cryptocurrency Won't End in 2025 – Here's Why

Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and co-founder of Real Vision, delivered a thesis at the Solana Breakpoint conference that could change how investors think about the future of digital assets. His conclusion? The peak of the crypto business cycle may not occur until late 2026, not this year.

### Why 4-year models are failing – the issue is much deeper

Most analysts operate under the assumption that Bitcoin's cycle is based on the four-year halving. But Pal points to something entirely different: crypto business cycles are not driven by technical factors but by a **macro-economic debt cycle**. This is a fundamental difference.

Professional statistics indicate a drastic decrease in the working population, which directly impacts demographic structure and public debt dynamics. As the working population declines, the debt-to-GDP ratio continually increases – this is math that cannot be fooled. The level of global debt has become a systemic problem, and the traditional solution has always been currency devaluation.

### $8 trillion on the horizon – the cause of a new growth phase

The Federal Reserve is already preparing for significant changes to its balance sheet. The forecast? Over the next 12 months, approximately $8 trillion will need to be issued through additional liquidity injections. This has created conditions for a new business cycle phase in the markets.

### 5.4-year cycle: a model that changes the perspective

Instead of 4-year schemes, Pal proposes a framework based on a 5.4-year business cycle. In this model, the bottom has already been reached, and the market is just beginning the upward phase. The peak is expected to occur by the end of 2026.

### Cryptocurrencies as a macroeconomic asset, not a speculative one

This is a groundbreaking view: **cryptocurrencies are not just speculative tokens but real macroeconomic assets**. Their valuations reflect broader business cycles in the global economy. The cross altcoin/Bitcoin rates are thus driven by the macroeconomic cycle, which is currently at its bottom, not its peak – exactly where the next growth phase should begin.

For global investors, macro means one thing: instead of thinking of Bitcoin in technical terms, it’s better to see it as a barometer of debt and monetary policy cycles.