2026-01-12 08:30:00

What is the underlying logic behind this wave of gold price rally?🤔

Last Friday, when the non-farm payroll data was released, the market exploded. Only 50,000 new jobs were added, far below the expected 66,000, while the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.4%, and wage growth was only 0.3%. This seemingly contradictory combination—weakness and resilience coexisting—immediately led traders to bet on the Fed cutting interest rates early next year, pushing gold prices sharply up to test the resistance at $4,500.

But there is a key point that has been overlooked: gold's rise is no longer solely driven by low interest rates.📈

Research institutions have clearly pointed out that this data makes the case for rate cuts more solid, giving gold sustained momentum. Another institution put it more straightforwardly— the labor market is weakening, and since policy doesn’t need to tighten, gold may continue to rise even without further rate cuts.

From a different perspective, what truly drives gold prices higher is the market’s expectation of the Fed shifting from a hawkish to a dovish stance, rather than the actual level of interest rates. The market has now pushed gold to the critical level of $4,500, where it is gathering strength, and the next wave of rally could ignite at any moment. By grasping this rhythm, bullish opportunities are right in front of you.

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IfIWereOnChain

· 1h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts is indeed key, but the 4500 level still feels like it hasn't been fully released, waiting for a breakout signal.

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GateUser-a606bf0c

· 16h ago

Well… As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, it surged to 4500. This wave of expectation difference trading is really incredible. --- Once the rate cut expectations are locked in, gold has little to resist. The shift to dovishness is the real core. --- So, buying gold now isn't really betting on interest rates, but rather betting on a turning point in the Federal Reserve's attitude. --- The 4500 level is gathering momentum. It feels like the next wave will be the real market move, and the bulls are about to take off. --- No wonder gold prices have been so strong recently. It’s not just about low interest rates; the shift in expectations is the main factor. --- It looks like dovish expectations are already mostly priced in. The key is how far the policies can actually be implemented. --- Huh, weak employment data but the unemployment rate still dropped? This combination is indeed bizarre. No wonder the market is crazily buying gold. --- Still hesitating whether to add more gold positions? After seeing this logic, it really feels like you should keep up with the rhythm. --- The Federal Reserve's attitude is the ultimate driving force behind gold. This wave makes the understanding much clearer.

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SleepyArbCat

· 01-12 09:00

Oh, it's another round of rate cut hype. The traditional finance approach is still spinning... I just brushed through it groggily, and it feels like it's just betting on a change in the Federal Reserve's stance.

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 01-12 08:55

Gold is rising a bit rapidly, but the logic still feels like the old routine... just wait for the Federal Reserve to keep easing.

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OnchainUndercover

· 01-12 08:55

Wow, has 4500 really stabilized? It doesn't seem that simple this time. --- After such a long anticipation of rate cuts, whether they will actually materialize is the key. --- Non-farm payroll data is indeed volatile; I'm just worried it might be a rollercoaster again. --- Bullish celebration, but the bears aren't out of the woods yet. Be cautious of a pullback. --- When gold prices were consolidating, it always felt like some big funds were hinting at something. --- Instead of guessing the next move, it's better to think about how to defend the current position. --- The dovish turn—does the market truly believe it or is it just self-hypnosis? --- Interest rates, to put it simply, still depend on the Federal Reserve's stance. --- Whether 4500 breaks or not, the overall pattern afterward will be very different.

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ShitcoinConnoisseur

· 01-12 08:44

Oh no, it's the same old expectation game again, always like this. Wait, is it really that simple a dovish shift? Feels like there's more left unsaid. The promised 4500 was the key level, but what happened? This logic sounds a bit familiar, they were hyping it up like this last year too. But on the other hand, the non-farm payroll data is indeed a bit strange; unemployment rate drops while wages fall, that's unscientific.

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