2026-01-12 08:28:14

Ethereum's current pricing logic indeed has issues. Not to mention the long term, just looking at the short to medium term, this asset's growth potential will significantly surpass Bitcoin.

Here's a simple calculation: if Ethereum increases 5 times, the price reaches 15,000; if Bitcoin increases 5 times, that’s 450,000. It sounds like a big gap, but when viewed in the context of the entire market cap, the situation is actually reversed.

Historically, the crypto market has gone through several phases—2017 with a total market cap of 800 billion, and the 2021 bull run soaring to 3 trillion. If this cycle can reach a market cap of 7.5 trillion, with Ethereum maintaining a stable market share of 20-25%, it would correspond to a market cap of 1.5 trillion. In terms of price, that’s roughly around 15,000 USD.

But if Bitcoin truly hits 450,000, how much pressure would that put on its market cap? It could directly rival the entire global silver market. From a sustainability and market capacity perspective, the space for Ethereum is actually clearer. Short to medium term, the data is right here.

ETH2,37%

BTC2,2%

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· 1h ago

Alright, I understand the logic, but it still feels like betting on the market cap expanding to 7.5 trillion... Is that really possible? I also wish ETH could reach 15,000, but who can say for sure whether this cycle will reach that size?

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GasSavingMaster

· 01-12 08:57

Wait a minute, I need to counter this logic... Just looking at the ratio without considering absolute values, isn't that just brainwashing yourself? The data looks impressive, but the real question is whether Ethereum can maintain a 20-25% share? That's a stretch... When has it been stable in history? We still need to look at on-chain activity and practicality, not just market cap, bro.

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ApyWhisperer

· 01-12 08:57

I believe in this logic... Wait, isn't comparing the market cap of silver a bit unreasonable?

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EternalMiner

· 01-12 08:56

This logic indeed holds up; I've said for a long time that Ethereum is undervalued.

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MetaverseHomeless

· 01-12 08:48

That's not right, this logical loophole is quite significant... Is the ceiling for Bitcoin really that low? --- 15,000 ETH sounds good, but only if the entire market can truly reach 75 trillion, which is no small feat. --- The comparison with silver feels a bit forced... The story of BTC is far from over. --- Market share stable at 20-25%? Haha, that's a bit of a high requirement. --- Good calculation, but one thing was overlooked—the market sentiment doesn't follow math. --- It's harder for ETH to increase 5x than BTC, that wasn't accounted for, everyone. --- From a capacity perspective, yes, but Bitcoin's consensus is much more robust than Ethereum's. --- Wait, the 75 trillion assumption itself is risky; we can't just push it upward casually. --- I believe in the short to medium term, but that phrase "the data is right here"... data can sometimes be deceptive.

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LightningWallet

· 01-12 08:45

This logic indeed holds up, and ETH's flexibility seems more realistic compared to BTC.

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GateUser-a606bf0c

· 01-12 08:43

Bro, your calculation is really clear-headed. Many people haven't thought through the market cap dimension. ETH reaching 15k is actually more realistic. To hit 450,000 for Bitcoin, the entire market ceiling needs to be supported. Someone should have done this calculation earlier.

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