A fascinating trade has emerged in the prediction market—an entirely new account deposited 3 ETH from an exchange within just 11 hours and then went all-in on a prediction market about "the US or Israel striking Iran this month," with a total stake of up to $9,000.

This market itself has attracted significant attention. Just three days after creation, the predicted probability soared to 60%, with a total trading volume reaching $438,530. It’s important to note that such rapid growth usually reflects strong market participants’ expectations about a particular event.

The background is quite clear—the geopolitical situation is heating up. Trump publicly stated that the US is considering "very strong options" against Iran, but senior officials from the US Department of Defense countered that military action requires more thorough preparation. Iran also did not back down, openly stating that if attacked by the US, Israel and US military facilities in the Middle East would become legitimate targets.

The appearance of this anonymous bet, combined with the current escalation of tensions, has turned the entire prediction market into an interesting window for observing geopolitical risks. The actions of various parties moving forward are likely to directly influence the fluctuation of this probability.