Will the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday cause Bitcoin to sell off to $70,000?

The latest Reuters poll indicates a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday, December 19. If this occurs, Bitcoin could face a serious threat — macroeconomic analysts see a clear link between Japan’s monetary policy tightening and BTC price declines. The projected direction? The $70,000–$72,500 zone — where a bear flag formation on the daily chart indicates an identical resistance area.

Historical precedents: every BoJ rate hike has ended with a bloody BTC correction

Data shows an almost reliable pattern. In March 2024, shortly after the BoJ rate hike, Bitcoin fell by 23%. July brought a 26% decline, and January 2025 — a dramatic 31% correction. Signals sent by Japanese central authorities consistently resulted in risk asset pressure worldwide.

The mechanism is well-known from financial textbooks: when the BoJ tightens monetary conditions, the Japanese yen strengthens, and traditional yen carry trades — borrowing cheaply in yen and investing in riskier instruments — become economically unprofitable. Traders close positions in panic, capital flows shrink, and Bitcoin — based on global liquidity — experiences direct downward pressure.

Technical warning signal: bear flag confirms macroeconomic pessimism

The daily BTC/USD chart reveals a classic bearish formation. After a dramatic drop from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, Bitcoin entered a narrow consolidation channel. Such structures are usually silence before the storm — if the price breaks below the lower trendline, technical measurement points precisely to the $70,000–$72,500 zone.

This is a thought-provoking convergence: both macroeconomic assumptions and technical indicators point to the same target area. Several prominent analysts — led by James Chick and Sellén — confirmed similar forecasts in recent weeks. The convergence of two independent analytical methods generally indicates increased signal credibility.

What now? Bitcoin below $70,000 is no longer an extreme scenario

With Bitcoin currently hovering around $91,450, a move down over 23% to the $70,000 level may seem drastic — but for markets based on leverage and global capital volatility, it is a fully realistic scenario within a few days. The latest Reuters poll raises the risk to the first category, and all signs point to Friday being a turning point.

Investors should watch the BoJ decision closely. Market history shows that Japan influences asset prices far beyond Asia — and Bitcoin, as a global 24/7 traded instrument, will be the first in line.