## Stablecoins Are Not "Sinking" Banks: How Competition Calculates Friction in the Financial System

The fear of a massive deposit run from banks to stablecoins has proven largely unfounded. According to recent empirical research, despite the explosion in market capitalization of stablecoins, there is no clear correlation between their proliferation and the loss of traditional bank deposits. Data shows that catastrophic warnings were panic-driven exaggerations, ignoring the real "physical laws" of the economy.

### Why Deposits Remain "Clinging" to Banks

The traditional banking model relies on a fundamental principle: systemic friction. The checking account functions as a central convergence node for all financial services — direct salary deposits, mortgages, credit cards, everything passes through it. This "beam effect" is so powerful that consumers accept lower interest rates and fees just to keep everything integrated in one place.

Even when a technological alternative like fully backed digital currency emerges, the strength of this integrated connection remains intact. The convenience of not having to transfer fragmented savings across multiple digital wallets outweighs the promise of a few basis points in gains. In economic physics terms, it’s as if the friction force between the customer and the bank is still too high to allow massive "slippage" toward other solutions.

### Competition as an Innovation Driver

Yet, here lies the real change: stablecoins will not kill banks but will force them to evolve. The mere presence of a credible alternative changes the equation: when consumers truly have a choice, banks can no longer rely solely on user inertia. They must offer competitive rates and efficient operating systems.

In this scenario, the force driving the market is not "flight," but competition. Like in any physical system, the "friction force" between different options for storing money diminishes: banks must pay more to retain deposits, and this pressure pushes them to continuously innovate their services.

### The Regulatory Framework Unlocking Potential

The GENIUS Act represents the decisive turning point. Requiring stablecoins to be fully backed by cash, short-term US Treasury securities, or insured deposits establishes a robust institutional standard. This is not a new regulatory regime but the smart application of established liquidity management principles to blockchain-based systems.

Regulatory authorities — Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — will translate these principles into concrete operational rules, ensuring issuers properly manage operational risks and custody. The result is a regulatory "unlocking" that moves stablecoins from the banking shadow into the national financial infrastructure.

### The Real Value: Cross-Border Efficiency

Once the rhetoric about the "disappearance of banks" is set aside, the true potential emerges: the very foundations of the global payment system are ready for a radical upgrade.

The current international transfer system is costly and slow — funds remain "in transit" for days as they pass through a chain of intermediaries. Stablecoins compress this process into a single on-chain transaction, irreversible and instant. This is not just a speed improvement: it’s a liberation of global liquidity previously blocked by outdated banking architectures.

Even in domestic settlements, the same efficiency promises faster and cheaper payments for merchants. For the banking sector, it’s a rare opportunity to modernize settlement infrastructures maintained with difficulty using obsolete technologies like COBOL.

### The Digital Dollar as a Geopolitical Strategy

The United States faces a crucial choice: govern the development of technology at the national level or allow the future of finance to take shape in offshore jurisdictions. The dollar remains the dominant global financial product, but the "rails" supporting it are clearly obsolete.

The GENIUS Act is not passive defense: it’s an offensive transformation. By incorporating stablecoins within regulatory boundaries, the United States converts shadow intermediation risk factors into a "global upgrade solution for the dollar" that is transparent and secure. A technology born offshore becomes a central part of the national financial infrastructure.

### The Lesson for the Banking Sector

Banks should not resist this transformation but recognize it as an opportunity. The real competition is not about "slowness" — they can no longer profit from delay. They must learn to monetize "speed" through sophisticated services built on these new foundations.

When they realize that the future model is not based on friction and inertia but on utility and speed, they will discover that stablecoins are not enemies but catalysts for a financial renaissance that will save them from the risk of obsolescence.