2026-01-12 08:10:27

#密码资产动态追踪 Will the Ethereum ecosystem really face a "dead end" in 2026? This is a question worth serious discussion.

The core contradiction lies in the rapid development of Layer 2 networks. Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism have indeed solved the speed issue, but at what cost? The transaction volume on the mainnet is gradually migrating to Layer 2, which means that Ethereum's own fee revenue is being eroded. Without sufficient transaction consumption, the previously touted deflationary model becomes a house of cards.

Looking at Solana's performance makes it even more painful. Not only does it outperform in speed, but its developer experience is also more friendly. New funds and projects are accelerating their flow into these high-performance alternatives. By 2026, if high-performance applications are concentrated on Solana or other parallel EVMs, Ethereum might really face a "fade out" scenario.

There is also an overlooked risk: regulatory pressure. Ethereum transitioned to PoS for compliance, but this shift has, to some extent, reinforced centralization features. If regulators take action against a few key nodes, Ethereum's narrative of "decentralization" will immediately collapse. This is not alarmism but a structural vulnerability.

If you are still allocating assets within the Ethereum ecosystem, you may need to reconsider:

First, observe the flow of funds. Pay attention to whether the main liquidity is truly shifting to more efficient public chains. Second, diversify risks. The cyclical rally in 2025 might be the last opportunity to retreat; don't expect to fully escape in 2026. Third, track the technology. Whether Ethereum's "fragmentation" issue can be resolved within two years is critical to judging its future.

The once market king may not reign forever. If Ethereum continues to fail in effectively integrating its ecosystem, a complete wipeout, though extreme, is indeed a serious survival issue.

ETH0,67%

ARB1,67%

OP2,12%

SOL1,9%

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GateUser-addcaaf7

· 15h ago

It sounds alarmist, but the high transaction fees on L2 scaling are indeed a serious flaw. It feels like Ethereum is self-destructing. SOL is definitely sucking up users quickly, developers are flowing there, and it seems like Ethereum's moat is collapsing. Regulatory issues are even more painful. After PoS, the risk of centralization is definitely there, and one policy could wipe everything out. Rather than waiting to die, it's better to balance your positions now and not put everything on the mainnet. If things continue like this until 2026, Ethereum might really be revalued. Can the fragmentation problem be solved in two years? It seems a bit uncertain. Anyway, I am in a wait-and-see phase. The former leader being overtaken by the new wave is indeed quite possible.

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NewDAOdreamer

· 22h ago

Alright, I get it. You make some points, but not entirely convincing, right? I'm already tired of the L2 fee splitting issue. But is Ethereum really going to zero? Overthinking it... Solana is indeed fast, and the developer experience is decent, but it has crashed a few times over the past two years. There's still a gap in stability and security... Regulatory risks hit hard. After PoS, there's definitely a bit of centralization, which is really the part to watch out for. Most importantly, is 2026 really that close? Nobody can say for sure...

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TommyTeacher

· 01-12 08:31

Hmm... this logic doesn't quite hold up. If L2 traffic moves away, then ETH is dead? Then who will ensure the security of the mainnet? SOL is fast, but when real problems occur, isn't it still relying on ETH's system...

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TokenVelocityTrauma

· 01-12 08:25

Tsk, it's the same old "Ethereum is doomed" rhetoric, someone always sings this tune every cycle... But this time, it really hits the core issue—the L2 eating into mainnet transaction fees is a real problem, and the collapse of the deflationary model is a fact. The regulatory part is probably the real hidden danger. The centralization of PoS has always been something no one wants to say clearly. Solana continuing to siphon off users is also obvious... But on the other hand, 2026 is still so far away, technology evolves so quickly, maybe the next "King of Public Chains" will be someone else. I'm just worried about those who want to buy the dip but also want to walk away completely—ultimately, they end up with nothing.

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-12 08:24

Here comes the negativity about ETH again, claiming that 2026 will be a dead end every time, but it still keeps rising in 2025. Speaking of L2, it does consume bandwidth, but who guarantees the security of the underlying layer? Is it enough that SOL is fast? What about the centralization risks brought by that speed? Can't you see it?

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LayerHopper

· 01-12 08:22

Still predicting the fall of ETH again, every cycle someone says this, and what’s the result? But the L2 sharding issue is indeed a blow, the mainnet transaction fees have dropped quite a bit. Solana is fast, but stability still needs to be watched; don’t let there be another major failure. Regulation is the real black swan; after POS, the centralization risk has indeed increased, this must be acknowledged. Should I run in 2025? Not sure, I haven't decided yet.

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