2026: The global market prepares for a historic redistribution of assets from JPMorgan's perspective

The JPMorgan projection for the global market in 2026 challenges both extreme optimism and rampant pessimism. What emerges is a transition toward a “new normal” where economic strength and systemic risks coexist in constant tension. In a context marked by unprecedented monetary divergences, explosive technological advances in artificial intelligence, and structural polarization of returns, investors face an enigma: where will the money truly be protected?

A bifurcated global market: the economy of winners and losers

The global market of 2026 will not be a homogeneous whole but a mosaic of contrasting dynamics. JPMorgan Global Research identifies that the continued expansion of AI is generating what its strategists call a “supercycle economy”: record capital investments, rapid growth in corporate profits, but also an increasingly extreme concentration of beneficiaries.

According to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of global markets strategy at JPMorgan, this multidimensional differentiation penetrates all levels: “The AI-related tech sector versus traditional sectors, the U.S. economy balancing between robust capital spending but persistent labor weakness, and increasingly polarized household consumption based on income.”

This scenario produces a crucial consequence: although macroeconomic fundamentals maintain their relative strength, stock market sentiment volatility will spike. Market concentration could reach historic highs, amplifying movements in both directions.

The economic equation 2026: resilience on fragile ground

JPMorgan anticipates that global economic growth will continue to show resilience in the first half of 2026, supported by three pillars: advances in fiscal policy in developed economies, solid corporate balance sheets, and abundant liquidity. However, a growing crack in the foundations is evident.

Bruce Kasman, global chief economist, warns of structural drag: cautious corporate hiring attitudes, driven by fears of trade conflicts, are eroding labor demand. This employment shortfall is beginning to diminish purchasing power, especially in the United States, where private wage growth is slowing. The result is that consumption in developed markets will face pressure by the end of 2025 and throughout much of 2026.

JPMorgan estimates a 35% probability of recession in the United States and the global economy during 2026. Nonetheless, fiscal stimuli and corporate resilience could absorb this impact, allowing for a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.

A new wave of AI investments could provide limited but significant momentum, although inflation persistence will remain a headache. With inflation around 3% and no clear signs of deflation, and upward pressures on commodities linked to trade tensions, inflation is likely to stay elevated at least until mid-2026.

Equities: AI supercycle drives extreme divergence

JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook for both developed and emerging markets in 2026, projecting double-digit gains. This optimism is based on solid earnings growth, falling interest rates, less political headwinds, and the uninterrupted rise of artificial intelligence.

United States: concentration at all-time highs

In the S&P 500, earnings growth of 13%-15% is expected over the next two years, directly driven by the AI supercycle. However, the dynamic will be “winner takes all”: greater concentration, saturation of conventional assets, and an increasing probability of extreme volatility even with stable fundamentals.

Eurozone: credit recovery and fiscal stimuli

Improved credit conditions and gradual implementation of fiscal stimuli could revitalize the eurozone’s economic activity in 2026. Earnings growth of over 13% is anticipated, benefiting from higher operational leverage, reduced tariff barriers, favorable comparables, and more accessible financing.

Japan: corporate reforms under “Sanaenomics”

Policies promoted by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aim to strengthen the Japanese stock market. Companies may focus on releasing excess cash, financing capital investments, raising wages, and providing more generous shareholder returns. This spending reactivation could boost middle-class consumption.

Emerging markets: solid fundamentals

With declining local rates, accelerating earnings growth, attractive valuations, and improving corporate governance, emerging markets have a strong foundation. China could show recovery in the private sector; South Korea benefits from corporate reforms and leadership in AI; Latin America might experience a notable rebound driven by aggressive monetary policies.

Interest rates: monetary divergence sets the pace

JPMorgan assumes that in 2026, economic growth in developed markets will reach or surpass its potential, while inflation recedes but remains. This combination accentuates divergences in monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by an additional 50 basis points, while the Bank of Japan could raise rates by 50 basis points. Other developed central banks will likely remain cautious or end easing cycles in the first half of the year.

By Q4 2026, projections are:

• US 10-year Treasury bonds: 4.35%
• German 10-year bonds: 2.75%
• UK 10-year bonds: 4.75%

Jay Barry, global rates strategy head, anticipates US yields will stay within range in the coming months, rebounding modestly after the Fed’s pause in spring. Outside the US, German and UK bonds will remain within ranges in 2025, weakening passively toward mid-year as US yields rise.

In Asia, JPMorgan maintains a bearish stance on Japanese bonds, expecting a flattening trend with no clear evidence of imminent bullish reversal.

Currencies: dollar under pressure but with limits

JPMorgan projects a generally bearish outlook for the dollar in 2026, though with less scope than in 2025. Persistent Fed concerns about labor weakness and a favorable environment for high-yield currencies will pressure the US dollar, but solid US growth and persistent inflation will limit its decline.

For the euro, the outlook is moderately bullish, benefiting from growth prospects in the eurozone and German fiscal expansion. However, unless US data weaken significantly, euro appreciation against the dollar will be less than in 2025.

Regarding the British pound, resilience in domestic growth, improved global expectations, and a favorable carry trade environment offer opportunities to “buy on dips.” JPMorgan prefers a tactical approach over a long-term bullish stance, expecting probable strength in the first half of the year, while fiscal concerns could regain prominence in the second half.

In Japan, the rapid advance of the dollar against the yen has stalled, but the yen will continue to weaken slightly in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, as G10 easing cycles end, it will be harder to curb depreciation through rate hikes and interventions. If the 2026 fiscal budget confirms the Takaichi government’s expansionary stance, fiscal sustainability concerns will amplify downward pressure on the yen.

Commodities: supply-demand imbalance defines prices

Oil: projected surplus but likely adjustments

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 900,000 barrels/day in 2026 and 1.2 million barrels/day in 2027. However, increased supply will triple demand growth in 2026, slowing to a third in 2027, theoretically creating a notable surplus.

Nevertheless, these imbalances are unlikely to be fully reflected due to adjustments in both supply and demand. JPMorgan anticipates rebalancing through demand increases (driven by falling prices) and a combination of voluntary and involuntary production cuts.

Projection: Brent at $58 in 2026 and $57 in 2027, aware that stabilizing prices at this level will require significant effort.

Natural gas: downward pressure from new capacities

Increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply will sustain a decline in global prices. With new projects coming online, prices are expected to gradually decrease from current levels over the medium and long term.

Projections for TTF (European benchmark):

• 2026: €28.75/MWh
• 2027: €24.75/MWh

This represents €3-4/MWh below current forward prices.

Precious metals: gold heading toward all-time highs

JPMorgan maintains a bullish stance on gold, supported by increasing central bank purchases and strong investment demand. Gold prices are expected to reach $5,000/ounce in Q4 2026, with an annual average of $4,753/ounce.

For silver, a level of $58/ounce is projected in Q4 with an annual average of $56/ounce. Platinum could maintain relative strength in 2026 until supply rebalancing progresses.

Agricultural products: high implied volatility, rising risks

Although upcoming planting seasons show no imminent signs of shortages (except for livestock and cacao), the global stocks-to-use ratio for 2026/27 and 2027/28 remains near multi-year lows.

Decreasing stock bases, driven by low margins for producers, make prices more sensitive to supply disruptions and amplify volatility. This is a critical factor to monitor constantly in portfolios with agricultural exposure.

Conclusion: navigating the new normal

The global market of 2026 will be defined by this “new normal” where resilience and risk coexist permanently. Investors must reevaluate pace, structure, and risk tolerance in an environment of high uncertainty. Differentiation will be key: there will be spectacular winners in AI, but also significant losers in traditional sectors. In the global market, diversification and timing will be as critical as never before.