Bitcoin at the $90,000 mark: What is the probability of "holding steady" until the end of the year?

In the final days of 2025, Bitcoin is being “cared for” by the trading community as a precious asset. Actual data from exchanges predicts that the market has completely changed its expectations – from seeking the 100,000 USD milestone to protecting the 80,000 USD price range.

What do the numbers from Polymarket say?

According to the latest information during Christmas, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below 80,000 USD in the remaining days of December is only 16%. This simple figure means: more than 8 out of 10 traders bet that the price will not fall below this level. Even more, the probability of Bitcoin falling to 75,000 USD is lower, at just 5%.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 91,510 USD, down approximately 15-20% from the all-time high of 108,000 USD in early December. What does that mean?

A bigger question: what is the chance that Bitcoin will rise back to 100,000 USD before the end of the year? Only 5%. Two weeks ago, this number was 29% on Polymarket and 34% on Kalshi. This decline clearly reflects one thing – the market has given up hope for the end-of-year rally.

Market sentiment: From euphoria to caution

When Bitcoin first surpassed 100,000 USD in November, the probability of continuing to rise on Polymarket exceeded 70%. Traders were in a full FOMO (fear of missing out) state. But as the price started to correct, short-term expectations quickly vanished.

In just two weeks, the probability of surpassing 100,000 USD dropped from about one-third to 5%. This is not just a data change – it’s a psychological shift of the entire market.

The 80,000 USD range: The amount of money protecting the “position”

Why has 80,000 USD become an important threshold? Because it is a historically strong support level. With only a 16% chance of falling below this, it indicates that significant capital is concentrated in this zone. Analysts point out that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at 94,000 USD and may test the 98,000 USD zone again – where liquidity is concentrated.

If it breaks through and holds above 94,000 USD, the price could target 108,000 USD according to the triangle pattern. However, the short time frame and thin market liquidity make upward momentum difficult.

Support factors remain weak

A small glimmer of hope appears from organizations. Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of MicroStrategy making periodic purchases this week is up to 65%. However, the average daily Bitcoin buying rate by corporations has been continuously decreasing – a sign that institutional investors may be growing tired.

Macro environment pressures

Macroeconomic instability is increasing. The Fed’s rate-cutting path is unclear, and expectations of a rate cut in 2026 have been revised downward, reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Geopolitical risks and regulations still exist, limiting the willingness of capital to push prices higher.

Outlook: 90,000 USD as the “anchor”

According to analysts, Bitcoin will maintain a range of fluctuations in the short term, with 90,000 USD becoming a key central zone. To break above, strong catalysts are needed, such as dovish signals from the Fed or large-scale buy-ins by institutions. Downward risks stem from end-of-year selling pressure and volatility due to thin liquidity.

Most organizations believe the probability of Bitcoin returning to 100,000 USD in the first half of 2026 is higher. But conquering this milestone in the last week of this year? Very challenging.

Looking further ahead: 2026 and beyond

Although the short-term outlook is not bright, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, points out that from 2022 to 2025, Bitcoin achieved a compound annual growth rate of 105% – perfectly aligning with long-term regression models.

Timmer forecasts that Bitcoin could see deeper corrections in 2026, falling to the 65,000 USD to 75,000 USD range. But he emphasizes that historically, this has always been a strong buy zone.

Julien Bittel, Chief Macro Strategist at Global Macro Investor, believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle no longer dominates Bitcoin’s price behavior. The extended debt refinancing cycle and evolving liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure could last until 2026. According to Bittel, Bitcoin will reach 300,000 USD by 2029.

Conclusion: Wait or act?

As the market shifts from euphoria over 100,000 USD to caution in protecting 80,000 USD, trading flows on Polymarket paint a clear picture. The current 16% probability of decline is not absolute confidence in Bitcoin, but rather a avoidance of extreme volatility during the thin liquidity period at year-end.

Bitcoin is currently at 91,510 USD, having lost upward momentum but lacking reasons to fall sharply. That’s the “hovering” state of the market in the final days of 2025.