How to Make a Million Dollars Shorting ETH – Market Analyst Strategies

Taiki Maeda, a well-known trader and analyst, shared his strategy for profiting from declines in Ethereum’s price. After earning a profit of $580,000, he reopened a short position of $1 million. His approach is based on in-depth analysis of capital flows and the motivations of major market players.

Genius of Profiting from a Bear Market

Contrary to appearances, a bear market is precisely the time when the greatest earning opportunities arise. Most investors wait for gains and fear declines, but experienced traders know that true wealth is built by buying and profiting at the lows. Taiki explains that when the entire market focuses on a single asset, it’s possible to forecast its movements accurately.

The current situation in the cryptocurrency market is changing. Where a few months ago everyone expected gains in Q4 and the “altseason,” now there are almost no marginal buyers. The market is exhausting itself, the bubble is bursting, and the phase of negative consolidation is beginning.

ETH Real Fair Value – between $1,200 and $2,200

The current Ethereum price is $3,140, with a market capitalization of about $378.92 billion. However, according to analysis, ETH’s real fair value could be significantly lower – between $1,200 and $2,200. This gap between the current price and the fair value presents an excellent opportunity to profit from declines.

Taiki observes that every time ETH’s price rises, early investors (“OG”) decide to sell. This makes ETH a tool for realizing profits rather than a long-term holding asset. Therefore, ETH is not a long-term faith but a short-term game.

The Role of Institutions in Pumping the Price – Tom Lee’s Model

Recently, a significant influence on the market has come from an investor with substantial financial resources, who invests $300 million weekly in Ethereum. His strategy is to increase ETH’s share in his portfolio to 4-5 percent within six months. The motivation is bonuses and incentives tied to financial achievements.

The business model resembles: increase media interest → raise the asset’s price → sell more company shares → gather capital → reinvest in ETH. The strategy is effective but unsustainable. When available funds are exhausted, the pressure to maintain the price will disappear.

When the Situation Might Collapse

A critical date is January 15, 2026 – the deadline for management bonuses and the final day a particular individual can be withdrawn from the exchange. If this happens, trillions of dollars could flow out of the market, causing enormous selling pressure.

Analysts note that when institutional buying peaks and the market perceives it as exhausted, ETH could experience a sharp decline. History shows that ETH once fell for 11 consecutive weeks, and investors were unprepared for it.

The Market is PvP – Player versus Player

The current cryptocurrency market situation resembles a player versus player (PvP) competition. There is a lack of new structural buyers entering the market with long-term plans. Instead, we have speculators waiting for rebounds and institutions testing market limits.

Taiki emphasizes: when a big player enters, you can sell; when they might exit, you can start shorting. This requires careful monitoring of demand sources and understanding what truly drives price changes.

Technology is Excellent, but the Asset is Bad

Ethereum is undeniably a technological achievement. However, excellent technology does not guarantee an increase in the asset’s price. Example: even if powerful companies issue stablecoins on the blockchain, it doesn’t mean the token’s value is rising.

Almost no one uses Ethereum for real mass-scale financial transactions. Activity is mainly focused on speculation and DeFi games. It’s important to distinguish between a “technological product” and an “investment asset” – they are different things.

How Taiki Makes Millions

His modus operandi is based on numbers and capital flows, not on technical analysis or fortune-telling from charts. Over the past two months, by shorting ETH and altcoins at peaks, he earned over $500,000.

His current short position of $1 million has an average entry price of $3.133. Unrealized profit is about $56,000. Taiki is not in a hurry – he’s waiting for the moment when institutional support exhausts itself.

Message for Ordinary Investors

Taiki is not criticizing Ethereum – he actively uses the ecosystem and conducts on-chain transactions. His message is different: don’t passively follow trends, analyze money flows, and position yourself based on the motivations of major players.

A bear market is always worse than we expect. However, without the skill to sell and profit from declines, there’s no chance for significant wealth in cryptocurrencies. Shorting ETH proves to be a simple and effective strategy for those who understand market dynamics.

The current stage can be summarized as: large funds have driven prices up, but people are increasingly aware that the rise was exaggerated. ETH’s real value could be much lower. This is the direction of current bets by an experienced trader.