Bitcoin 2025: From the 200K Dream to the 100K Reality

LazyDevMiner · 2026-01-12T07:36:13+00:00

Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin forecast from $200,000 to $100,000 by 2025, attributing the downgrade to reduced institutional buying and weaker inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Market growth is stagnating, influenced by Federal Reserve policies. The halving cycle's impact has also diminished, signaling a more mature market. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision is crucial for Bitcoin's trajectory.

LazyDevMiner

2026-01-12 07:36:13

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Standard Chartered just announced some unwelcome news: the prospect of Bitcoin reaching 200,000 USD by the end of 2025 has vanished. Instead, the bank has revised its target down to 100,000 USD—a significant 50% setback. Bitcoin is currently trading around the 91,890 USD mark, and the story behind this number is truly noteworthy.

Corporate buying pressure has ceased

Q4 has left its mark on the Bitcoin market, limiting growth momentum. According to analyst Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered, the aggressive buying from major institutions—large players managing digital assets—has completely stopped.

Previously, tech companies held Bitcoin as a key part of their financial strategy. However, this accumulation activity has now ended. This means that the buying pressure from corporations has almost disappeared. The current pressure now lies on Bitcoin ETF funds, new investment tools expected to replace the role of institutional investors.

Waning capital inflows into ETFs raise concerns

However, the situation is not unfolding as expected. Capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs is decreasing at a significant rate. Currently, ETFs are absorbing only about 50,000 BTC per quarter, a figure much lower than the peak period at the end of 2024.

For comparison, at its peak, net flows from both ETFs and digital asset treasury funds combined reached 450,000 BTC per quarter. This drop from 450,000 to 50,000 BTC clearly indicates weakening market buying pressure.

Federal Reserve monetary policy has a direct impact

Another important factor is the Federal Reserve’s policy. Investors’ risk appetite for “risk-on” assets like Bitcoin largely depends on the interest rate environment.

There are predictions that an upcoming 0.25 percentage point rate cut could support Bitcoin prices to recover. If Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, monetary easing policies could be implemented, creating favorable conditions for safe assets like crypto to seek price increases.

Halving cycle is no longer a decisive factor

Geoffrey Kendrick has challenged a common hypothesis: the halving cycle is no longer the main catalyst for Bitcoin prices. In fact, the crypto winter has completely ended, and the market forecasts only a 6% chance of a true hibernation period occurring in early 2026.

This is not bad news—it indicates that the market is maturing, no longer cycling through familiar past patterns.

Waiting for signals from the Federal Open Market Committee

Currently, Bitcoin is just below the 100,000 USD threshold, awaiting a crucial decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. This decision will be key in determining whether Bitcoin can surpass Standard Chartered’s new target or will continue to fluctuate at lower levels.

Regardless of the outcome, both traditional trading worlds and the crypto community will be closely watching the upcoming developments.

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