Bitcoin puzzle before 2026: Will it defend the $80,000 or aim for new highs?

When bets in the prediction market speak with real money, a clear picture emerges: traders are playing defense, not offense. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $91.89K, but the real enigma keeping investors on edge is whether it can maintain strength at these levels or if it will fall below the critical support of $80,000 in the final moments of 2025.

Real money bets on consolidation

The latest data from prediction platforms like Polymarket reveal a surprisingly conservative consensus. With only a 16% chance that bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before the end of the year, it means that over 84% of capital is betting on defending this key level. Compared to just two weeks ago, when expectations of reaching $100,000 hovered around 29-34% on platforms like Kalshi, the shift in sentiment is dramatic.

The most revealing is that only 5% of traders see it possible for bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in the last seven days of the year. To reach that level from the current price of $91.89K, an upward move of more than 11% would be required—a feat statistically unlikely in periods of low liquidity.

From extremism to skepticism: how market sentiment has changed

Just a month and a half ago, when bitcoin broke the psychological barrier of $100,000 in November, the probability on Polymarket of returning to that level before year-end exceeded 70%. Optimism was almost contagious.

But market reality is relentless. By mid-December, when bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126.08K (according to historical data), it seemed only a matter of time before reclaiming $100,000. However, the retreat has been consistent: since then, bitcoin has fallen approximately 15-20%, settling around $91.89K.

This collapse in expectations is no accident. Traders observe three worrying dynamics: first, uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory for 2026; second, evidence that institutional investors may be experiencing fatigue after months of aggressive accumulation; and third, volatility amplified by the low liquidity characteristic of year-end.

Where the technical battle is fought

Analysts identify a very clear battle. Bitcoin is seeking to consolidate around $90,000, but the real move will depend on what happens in the $94,000 zone. If it manages to break through and consolidate above this level, forming what technicians call an “ascending triangle,” the next target would be the liquidity zone at $98,000.

A decisive break above $94,000 should push the price toward $108,000, the measured target of the triangle. However, for this to happen, an external catalyst is needed. Polymarket traders estimate a 65% chance that MicroStrategy will make regular bitcoin purchases this week, acquiring more than 1,000 BTC. This institutional action could be exactly the push the market needs.

The risks lurking in the shadows

But not all optimism is contained. The time window is ridiculously narrow: only days remain until the end of the year. Historical data suggest that large year-end rallies are more of an exception than the rule. The daily rate of bitcoin purchases by companies continues to slow down, which some see as an indicator that institutional investors may be entering a phase of caution or even fatigue after weeks of aggressive buying.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks remain on the horizon, acting as a silent brake on speculative appetite. While some see $80,000 as an unbreakable floor, others warn that a year-end sell-off amplified by low liquidity could lead bitcoin to retest $75,000, a level that currently has only a 5% probability according to the bets.

The perspective that matters: 2026 and beyond

Although the short term is shrouded in uncertainty, major analysts maintain a constructive outlook. Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, emphasizes that bitcoin has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 105% from 2022 to 2025, staying true to its long-term regression model.

Timmer warns that a deeper correction in 2026, where bitcoin could fall to $65,000-$75,000, would not be a surprise. But here’s the nuance: historically, those levels have been proven buying opportunities, not traps for long-term investors.

Even bolder is Julien Bittel’s prediction, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, who argues that the old four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant factor. Prolonged debt refinancing cycles and the new liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure could persist beyond 2025. According to Bittel, bitcoin could reach levels of $300,000 in 2029.

The enigma solved, for now

When traders close their positions on Polymarket, betting their real money on where bitcoin will be in a few days, they are sending a clear message: defense is more important than offense. The 16% chance of falling below $80,000 does not reflect unwavering confidence in bitcoin but rather an extreme risk aversion during a period of illiquidity.

Bitcoin is currently floating in the air at $91.89K, lacking enough momentum to shoot toward $100,000 but with defenses strong enough to prevent a collapse toward $75,000. It’s a tense balance, a coin suspended in uncertainty. But if the long-term is any guide—with compounds of 105% annually and projections toward $300,000 in 2029—then the next two weeks are just a blink in bitcoin’s longer saga as the dominant digital asset.