Short-term profitability: How Bitcoin traders navigated 2025 and what to expect in 2026

While Bitcoin continues to move within a compressed range around $91.77K, fascinating data emerges from the depths of the blockchain. Short-term market operators on BTC closed 2025 with a surprisingly positive balance: 229 days out of 345 recorded net gains, accounting for 66% of the year. A result that challenges mainstream narratives, considering Bitcoin finished the year with a -2.98% performance from the start of the period.

The story that onchain data tells

Beneath the surface of seemingly chaotic volatility lies a well-defined market structure. The key to understanding 2025 lies in the analysis of the STH (short-term holders) cohort of 1-3 months, whose realized price at $81,000 acted as a psychological equilibrium level.

In the first two months of the year, Bitcoin remained steadily above this pivot, allowing short-term holders to accumulate unrealized profits. The situation reversed with the arrival of spring: February and March saw prices break below this cost basis, generating a prolonged period of losses and intense market stress.

Momentum experienced a decisive reversal between late April and mid-October. In this 172-day window, data shows a prevailing green color in the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) charts, indicating a phase of long-term profitability. Even when the macro trend weakened, these frequent rebounds supported short-term traders’ gains, well above what traditional metrics would suggest.

Rebound frequency: The true driver of profitability

Contrary to what one might think, the success of STH in 2025 was not driven by Bitcoin’s directionality, but by how often BTC returned to its cost basis. These recurring rebounds, even in a negative year context, allowed participants to close positions profitably two out of three times.

This pattern reveals an essential market dynamic: volatility, when managed correctly, offers profit opportunities regardless of the overall direction. Only with the end of October did the market fall again below the realized price, triggering the current 45-day period of losses for STH.

The critical level at $81,000 and implications for 2026

The current rebound, which brought Bitcoin to test the $92,500 zone, significantly compressed unrealized losses for STH, reducing from -28% to -12%. This narrowing signals an exhaustion of forced selling and a weakening of emotional pressure on the market.

The realized price of STH at $81,000 remains the crucial psychological focal point. Historically, when BTC consolidates above this level, the market transitions from capitulation to a phase of constructive stability. New capital entering over the past few days to weeks is now close to breakeven, reinforcing this support structure.

If Bitcoin manages to maintain its position above $81,000 while continuing to improve short-term operators’ profitability, the year-end correction could be considered nearly complete. This scenario would set the stage for the next expansion phase in 2026, when a consolidated cost basis could become the foundation of a new bullish cycle.