$80K — Is this a calculated bottom or just another minimum? Why are Bitcoin bulls preparing for a reversal?

The Bitcoin market is experiencing one of the sharpest declines since the end of 2022, but on-chain data and predictive models paint a somewhat more optimistic picture. Experts claim that the $80,000 level is holding as a critical support, and the recovery to $91.77K already confirms this forecast.

Liquidity is increasing — a reason for optimism?

Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto analyst, associates a possible bottom at $80,500 with the completion of the Fed’s quantitative tightening cycle and the expansion of US credit. In his view, it is the improvement in liquidity conditions, rather than market sentiment, that will be the main driver of the next growth.

“We are trading below $90K, there may be an attempt to dip into the low $80K, but $80K will hold,” — Hayes noted, emphasizing that sentiment is often a trap for traders expecting further declines. According to his forecast, increased liquidity should trigger a “wave effect” across the entire crypto market.

On-chain data support this hypothesis. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has just recorded the largest net realized loss since the FTX crash, but the market almost instantly absorbed these forced sales. Such rapid absorption indicates the clearing of floating supply, allowing BTC to defend the $80,000–$85,000 zone, provided traditional markets remain stable.

The capitulation model shows a 91% probability of a record

Astronomer analyst developed a model based on a sequence of high-volume red candles. This study covered 11 historical cases where similar capitulation patterns preceded major reversals.

The results are impressive: in 8 of 11 cases, such a pattern marked the beginning of a new bull trend, which ended with new all-time highs. Only one case was a prolonged decline, making it a statistical outlier.

Based on these 91% positive outcomes, the model predicts:

• 91% probability of reaching $118,000
• 99% probability of testing $112,000
• 75% probability of continuing the broader bull market

Astronomer emphasizes: when sentiment is bearish, it is often a signal that capitulation has ended. Selling now or waiting for trend confirmation aligns with crowd behavior, which often leads to chasing local highs.

NVT ratio signals undervaluation

The NVT (Net Value to Transactions) ratio for BTC has fallen to -1.6, which typically indicates undervaluation of the asset and the potential for a short-term return to the mean. This provides additional confirmation that the current price has enough resilience.

However, crypto trader Darkfost warned users against using leverage in such volatile environments, even if technical signals appear favorable.

Conclusion: when sentiment is an obstacle, data speaks for itself

The current situation illustrates the classic conflict between market emotions and objective data. Technical models, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic factors indicate that $80,000–$85,000 remains a reliable support. Bitcoin is already showing a recovery to $91.77K, supporting the theory of a local bottom and preparation for the next growth phase.