#密码资产动态追踪 Recently saw the actions of a seasoned trader and couldn’t help but want to share some observations. This trader used 40x leverage to short nearly 50 BTC, with an average entry price around 92,000 USD. Currently, the unrealized loss is $6,500. At first glance, it doesn’t look ideal, but reviewing his historical performance is the real highlight—152 trades with only 4 losses, totaling over $290,000 in profit. Such a win rate is indeed rare in the trading community.

From an on-chain data perspective, besides this large short position, I also observed several other indicators. Recently, the frequency of large on-chain transfers of BTC has increased, but the inflow to exchanges has not risen significantly, which often indicates that big players are accumulating or adjusting their positions. Looking at the funding rate of perpetual contracts, it remains relatively neutral, and there’s no sign of extreme bearish sentiment piling up— in other words, the market’s fear index isn’t high. The unrealized loss of this trader is likely because the price didn’t break down as expected but found support at some level.

There’s no particularly negative news on the macro front. This trader’s actions do tend to attract attention, after all, his win rate and follower base are evident. But now he’s in an unrealized loss position; if the price continues to rise, he might be forced to close his position, which could actually increase buying pressure. I’ve scanned recent news, and on the macro side, the Fed’s stance hasn’t changed dramatically, so this short position looks more like a test by a skilled trader rather than a market-wide trend indicator.

My judgment is: in the short term, BTC is more likely to fluctuate upward. The reasoning isn’t complicated—on-chain holdings look healthy, with no signs of large-scale concentrated selling; and this trader’s unrealized loss also reflects the market’s resilience. Based on my observations, BTC may consolidate between 90,000 and 95,000 USD before seeking an upward breakout. Why do I say that? Last month, I mentioned that big players are quietly building positions, and this consolidation phase is part of accumulating energy. I warned about reducing positions before last year’s correction, and looking back, my prediction was quite accurate.

Final advice: don’t be led by a single large operation. Trading is about the overall picture; even the most skilled traders are just market participants. Ultimately, market direction results from the interaction of all forces. The current strategy is to hold good spot positions, avoid leverage if possible, and only add leverage once the overall trend is clear. Market movements require patience—only those who can hold on will make big money. $BTC