#2026年比特币价格展望 Recently, I’ve looked at quite a bit of market data, and the situation is indeed a bit cold. The hype around crypto content on YouTube is plummeting, and last year alone, there were over 11.6 million failed projects. Those purely speculative tokens are dying the fastest. Plus, the $19 billion leverage liquidation wave in October—retail investors are really pulling back now.

But here’s the interesting part: in the short term, things look grim, but the long-term logic is actually reversing.

Let’s start with some signals from the news side. Declining viewership indicates retail interest is waning. The failure of projects in bulk means trash is being cleared out. The leverage liquidations have burst the bubble even more. All these factors together suggest the market is undergoing a major cleanup—crazy money is leaving, and the truly valuable fundamentals are coming to light.

Now, looking at on-chain data. Several indicators I’ve been tracking are quite interesting: although short-term capital is flowing out, the holdings of large wallets remain very stable, and exchange reserves haven’t changed much. What does this mean? “Smart money” hasn’t run away; it might even be quietly accumulating. Historically, after each leverage wipeout, the market goes through a bottoming process before rebounding.

Mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as projects with real use cases, are what we should focus on. Those purely hype-driven tokens are too risky. My view is that this current downturn is actually a mid-term consolidation phase, not the end. Based on the market cycle after 2021, I expect some consolidation to continue for a while, but a turning point should appear in the second half of the year.

Risk awareness is the most important. The dangers of leverage I warned about before have been reaffirmed this time. So my advice is: don’t rush to buy the dip, but don’t panic sell either. Keep observing and hold onto assets with solid fundamentals. When the market is volatile, it often hides the best opportunities—key is to have patience. What are you holding now? Let’s chat in the comments.