Last Friday, after the release of the US December non-farm payroll data, the entire market rhythm was disrupted.

On the surface, 2026 started off well—the three major US stock indices took turns hitting new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.65%, the Dow up 0.48%, and the Nasdaq even more impressive, soaring 0.83%. International gold prices also didn't sit still, breaking through $4,600, performing a "double dragon playing with a pearl" with the US stocks. But as soon as the key data was released, this atmosphere of prosperity instantly reversed.

**Where did the problem lie?**

December added only 50,000 jobs. At first glance, this number doesn't seem significant, but when compared to the levels in the previous two months, you can feel how sharp the decline is. The market had previously bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in March, but once this data came out, that bet was shattered. According to the trend predicted by the market prediction platform Polymarket, investors are now betting all their chips on the first rate cut in June, essentially forced to retreat three months.

**The Federal Reserve faces multiple dilemmas**

Powell's days are also tough. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation against him involving a $2.5 billion renovation project. He publicly stated he will continue with it, but this uncertainty undoubtedly casts a shadow over the market. Policy makers themselves are in trouble, how can the market have any reassurance?

**Geopolitical risks are the real black swan**

What’s even more worrying is the geopolitical situation. Iran, as the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, has a daily production capacity of up to 3 million barrels. If the Middle East situation becomes turbulent, how will oil prices move? How will the crypto market react? This suspense is like a Damocles sword hanging over the global asset markets.

For crypto assets, these macro variables are key signals—delayed rate cut expectations mean a longer liquidity tightening cycle, and geopolitical fluctuations will drive investors to reallocate safe-haven assets. How the subsequent market will develop depends on continued attention to these data and policy trends.