Recently, the market has shown some interesting signals. A leading figure has started to advocate for localized support for a certain cryptocurrency. Every time such actions occur, retail investors usually have to step back — this has been the pattern for years.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has launched a criminal investigation into Powell and continues to pressure for rate cuts. Historically, conflicts between presidents and the Federal Reserve have been common, but situations involving legal procedures typically only arise when systemic pressure has already spilled over. Looking at it from another angle, if the economic fundamentals are truly as robust as the data suggests, why escalate the situation to this point?

There’s a deeper issue here: the fundamental data we see is likely sanitized. The real pressure points — liquidity shortages, declining asset quality of local financial institutions, short-term financing difficulties for enterprises — these are the "not so easy to discuss in a press conference" issues that are decisive. Once these areas spiral out of control, rate cuts are no longer a tool for economic stimulus but become emergency measures to stem bleeding. The key question is: how long can these problems be sustained?

The biggest risk in the current market is cognitive disparity. If the Federal Reserve changes its policy path under political pressure, the market’s initial reaction won’t be just about interest rate data itself, but a reassessment of the entire institutional stability. This shift in expectations can cause volatility far beyond technical signals.

Returning to the BTC situation. We are now at a familiar critical zone. Technically, it has temporarily broken through the resistance level, but it hasn’t established a solid move — this is crucial. Only if it truly consolidates can it attempt to test the reversal zone. It’s been about 45 days since the last charting, and the recent two attempts differ mainly in the slowing pace of the movement. This indeed opens up the possibility of a breakout, but honestly, in my judgment, that probability is around 30% (this is just my personal view, for reference. Frankly speaking, whether it consolidates or breaks out, I don’t see the odds as very high, but that’s not an absolute conclusion).

If it fails to break through, it will continue to oscillate within the range. My personal approach is: when volume is insufficient, rely on price declines to compensate. The heatmap shows heavy buy orders in the 8 to 8.3 range; as long as the price can reach near this zone, the next rebound is likely to break through the reversal line at 9.4 to 9.55. Currently, it’s hard to understand the actions of the main players and the whales; it feels like they are just wasting effort.