The Federal Reserve is facing some issues—federal prosecutors are investigating the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project, which has attracted quite a bit of attention. However, from the perspective of prediction markets, traders remain quite indifferent to the idea of Powell stepping down early.

According to Polymarket data, the current betting is as follows: the probability of Powell stepping down before March 31 is only 8%, and the Department of Justice investigation has had little impact on market sentiment. Interestingly, Powell previously complained that the government was trying to use this investigation to pressure monetary policy, but traders don't seem to buy it.

Who will be the next in line? Kevin Warsh is the most favored candidate, with a probability of 43%. Such shifts in expectations have a significant impact on asset prices. You can see gold prices rising accordingly, breaking through $4,580 per ounce. The crypto market remains relatively stable, but everyone is clearly watching for potential changes in monetary policy.