Recently, after chatting with several trading partners, I have a certain feeling: it seems like the rules are reversed. Novice accounts are skyrocketing, while long-term stable ones remain silent; concept stocks are wiping out fundamental players; new investors are advising veteran traders on how to operate.

Careful observation of the recent surging targets reveals that there are mainly two types of pushers behind this. One is the precise operation of capital teams, and the other is retail investors following the trend and chasing gains. This actually indicates that market liquidity is truly abundant and the profit-making effect is very strong. However, my friends who have maintained stable returns over the years are either not interested in this wave of concepts or, even if they participate, they are just testing the waters with very restrained positions. Conversely, those with boldness and strong execution are indeed making big profits.

But there is a watershed to be cautious about. Talking about grand logic or drawing long-term value blueprints at high levels is often a sign that losses are beginning. Trading concepts itself is not shameful—if it makes money, the method is good. The key is not to romanticize short-term probability games into long-term value investing, because in the end, it’s oneself who suffers.

I say this not because I have no positions to watch the show. On the contrary, in these few trading days at the beginning of the year, my profits have set personal records because I only make money within my cognitive scope. That’s the most important thing—finding your own rhythm and operating within your circle of competence.

Ultimately, trading has never been a gambler’s game; it is an arena for long-termists. Speed and boldness can bring temporary gains, but those who truly last rely on honesty about their own cognitive boundaries.