Recently, there has been quite a bit of activity in the Solana ecosystem. Kyle, a manager at a leading VC, tweeted that the Solana mainnet is expected to achieve spot and perpetual futures trading volumes comparable to mainstream centralized exchanges by the end of this year. This statement was even pinned. At first glance, it sounds bold, but considering the recent market reactions, it might not be just empty talk.

According to the latest data comparison: Solana's spot DEX trading volume is approximately $2.587 billion, while mainstream CEX spot volumes are around $4.240 billion, meaning the gap needs to be reduced to about 1.64 times. For perpetual futures, the pressure is even greater—Solana's about $571 million versus $46.326 billion, requiring roughly an 81-fold increase. Some data agencies estimate there could be a growth potential of 12-32 times.

Honestly, there is some opportunity for the spot market to grow through ecosystem development, but the gap in the derivatives market is significant and seems unlikely to be bridged in the short term. However, it’s understandable— as Solana’s most steadfast strategic investor, telling a story about their position is routine.

There are market voices estimating that if this goal is truly achievable, the reasonable price range for SOL should be between $400 and $500. Personally, I think this prediction has limited credibility, but since I hold SOL, I would be satisfied if it reaches around $350. The market is always full of imagination, but the data is in front of us, and rationality is key.