From 90,000 to 2,900,000, why does Schiff strongly criticize VanEck's Bitcoin forecast

Gold advocate Peter Schiff recently launched a fierce attack on VanEck’s long-term Bitcoin forecast. VanEck analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could surpass $2.9 million by 2050, but Schiff bluntly dismisses this as “nonsense,” claiming these analysts are “hired to be bullish on Bitcoin, and their analysis is worthless.” This clash of viewpoints reflects the deep divide between traditional finance and the crypto market.

How Aggressive Is the Prediction?

VanEck’s forecast is indeed bold. According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $91,809. If it truly reaches $2.9 million, that would mean a roughly 32-fold increase over 24 years.

From the data, this prediction implies Bitcoin would need to grow at an average annual rate of over 14%. For an asset with a market cap of $1.83 trillion, holding 58.49% of the crypto market, such a growth rate requires quite optimistic assumptions.

Schiff’s Criticism Logic

Schiff’s criticism mainly targets two aspects. First is conflict of interest — he believes analysts are making such predictions because they are hired to be bullish on Bitcoin. Second is the scientific validity of the forecast — he claims these analyses are “worthless.”

Given Schiff’s identity as a staunch advocate of gold and a representative of traditional finance, his ongoing criticism of Bitcoin is not recent — according to recent reports, he stated in an interview at the end of 2025 that he might influence people’s purchasing decisions even more than Bitcoin advocates, and even predicted that “Bitcoin will self-destruct before 2035.” This reflects his fundamental skepticism toward crypto assets.

The Value and Limitations of Predictions

Long-term forecasts are particularly prone to controversy in the crypto market, for straightforward reasons:

• High Uncertainty: A 24-year span is enough for countless regulatory changes, technological iterations, and shifts in market dynamics.
• Difficult to Verify Assumptions: They require assumptions about Bitcoin’s use cases, market acceptance, and competitive landscape developing in specific directions.
• Many Stakeholders: Asset management firms, exchanges, miners, and other participants all have incentives to publish optimistic predictions.
• Limited Historical Data: Bitcoin has existed for less than 17 years; predicting its price 24 years into the future based on limited historical data is essentially extrapolation.

What the Market Needs

The interesting part of this debate is that it simultaneously reflects two realities of the crypto market:

On one hand, there is a genuine need for institutions and analysts to provide long-term perspectives, helping investors consider Bitcoin’s ultimate value. On the other hand, these predictions are also prone to exaggeration and misuse.

Schiff’s critique, though sharp, points to a real issue: when forecasters profit from optimistic narratives, their objectivity is inevitably compromised. Conversely, Schiff’s own pessimism as a gold advocate also stems from vested interests — gold and Bitcoin are, to some extent, competitors.

Summary

VanEck’s $2.9 million prediction is indeed aggressive and requires quite optimistic assumptions to materialize. Schiff’s criticism highlights the real limitations of long-term forecasts — high uncertainty and conflicts of interest. However, outright dismissing such analyses is also unfair, as the market genuinely needs diverse voices and perspectives.

What truly matters is not whether these predictions will come true, but understanding the underlying assumptions behind them. Investors should treat these forecasts as tools for thinking, not as facts. In this market, it’s important to be wary of overly optimistic narratives while recognizing that extreme pessimism can also stem from biases.