Weekly Macroeconomic Outlook: CPI Challenges the Fed's Firepower, Geopolitical Tensions Fight Back Against Selling Pressure. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.6% this week, and the Russell 2000 Index increased 4.6%. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) attracted $10 billion in just a few days—an astonishing speed for passive funds. These mark a strong start to the year. On Tuesday at 21:30, the US releases December unadjusted CPI annual rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and unadjusted core CPI annual rate; on Wednesday at 21:30, US November retail sales monthly rate, US November PPI annual/monthly rate, and the US Q3 current account; on Thursday at 21:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, the US January New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and November import price index monthly rate. Additionally, Fed officials are speaking intensively this week, and Powell's successor is unlikely to cut rates before taking office, as shown in the attached chart. A strategist from US Bank Global Research said that Friday's data reinforced their belief that the Fed will not cut rates again before Powell's successor takes over. This week, US Secretary of State Blinken plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. Turmoil triggered by anti-government protests across Iran (including the capital Tehran) may also impact market risk sentiment in the short term.

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