#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Thoughts on the Future of $FXS

FXS (Frax Share) has recently become a focus for many investors. Having fallen from all-time highs to around $1, can this project return to $10 by 2026? To answer this question, we need to look at several dimensions clearly.

Shift in Core Logic

Initially, Frax was positioned as a stablecoin protocol, but now the story has changed. Fraxtal, as an independent L2 chain, is building a complete DeFi ecosystem. If by the end of 2026, the TVL can reach the goal of 100 billion, the value support for FXS as a governance token will be stronger.

Revenue model is being activated. Once the protocol fee switch is fully turned on, 50% of the revenue will be used to buy back FXS and distribute to veFXS holders. This means evolving from a simple governance token to a yield asset with real cash flow backing.

Supply side is also changing. By 2026, the annual inflation rate of FXS is expected to drop to around 3%. The slowdown in supply growth combined with increasing ecosystem demand significantly raises the possibility of a "scissors" price formation.

Risks to Watch

Currently, the project is in the phase of FRAX brand unification and token migration. Short-term liquidity dispersion has led to less impressive price performance, which requires holders to be patient. Additionally, in the L2 and stablecoin sectors, competitors like Ethena and major exchanges are making efforts. If Frax cannot keep up with the execution pace, even the best plans will be hard to realize.

Entry Strategy

The current volatile range is not suitable for high leverage trading. To see $10 by 2026, it relies on time compounding rather than short-term luck. During the bottoming period, using idle funds for dollar-cost averaging is a more rational choice.