ETH rises slightly by 1.15%, the covert battle between institutional hoarding and retail cashing out

ETH continues to rise modestly on January 12, with a 24-hour increase of 1.15%, currently trading at $3127.29. Behind this seemingly calm increase, multiple forces are engaged in intense confrontation: institutions are quietly increasing their staking positions, retail investors are taking profits through large trades, market sentiment has plunged to a freezing point, and technological upgrades are laying the foundation for long-term value. This multi-dimensional struggle is reshaping ETH’s short-term trajectory and long-term expectations.

Triple Confrontation Beneath the Surface of Calm

Institutions Increasing Stakes vs Retail Investors Taking Profits

According to the latest news, Bitmine staked an additional 86,400 ETH in the past 24 hours, bringing the total staked amount to over 1,050,000 ETH, with a total value of $32.5 billion. This is not a one-time move but the fourth large-scale transaction in half a month. The logic behind the continuous increase by institutions is clear: locking ETH is equivalent to removing supply from circulation, reducing market selling pressure.

Meanwhile, early Ethereum investors have been intensively selling 154,076 ETH over the past two days, realizing approximately $274 million in profits. These investors bought at an average cost of $517 and have achieved a 344% return. Their decision to take profits now is psychologically reasonable. But from market dynamics, this creates an interesting contrast: large institutions are positioning for the long term, while retail investors are cashing out gains.

Price Data Overview

Rebound Signal Amid Extreme Market Sentiment

According to the latest news, Ethereum’s discussion volume and sentiment on social media have fallen to extremely low levels, similar to the levels before the market rally at the beginning of 2025. This detail is crucial. Historical experience shows that when market participants are extremely pessimistic and choose to “give up” on an asset, it often signals the night before a price rebound.

After a similar wave of extreme pessimism last time, ETH surged nearly 70% within four months. Although current sentiment reflects short-term pessimism, on the flip side, it also indicates that the likelihood of a significant price drop is relatively limited. This is a signal of a sentiment reversal.

Ecosystem Upgrades Support Long-Term Value

According to the latest news, the Ethereum Foundation has confirmed that zero-knowledge proof technology will be a core part of the network’s mid-term roadmap. The native zkEVM plan will enable the network to default to using zero-knowledge proofs for transaction validation, significantly reducing the costs of securing the network and enabling scalability without sacrificing decentralization.

This is not just marketing hype but real technological evolution. The clear direction of the ecosystem roadmap provides a confidence foundation for long-term investors and explains why institutions like Bitmine are willing to continue increasing their positions at current prices.

Risks Concentration in Derivatives Market

The short-term trend hinges on two liquidation levels:

• $3000: Falling below this will trigger $882 million in long position liquidations
• $3227: Breaking above this corresponds to $458-487 million in short position liquidations

The current price of $3127 is precisely between these two risk zones, indicating that long positions are under pressure but not at a critical point. In the short term, the market may repeatedly test these two key levels, forming a oscillating pattern.

Summary

ETH’s 1.15% increase appears modest, but the underlying forces are worth noting. Continuous institutional staking, retail profit-taking, extreme social sentiment, and ongoing technological upgrades together create a complex market landscape. From the perspective of extreme pessimism and long-term institutional positioning, the market may be on the eve of a rebound. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the performance around the two derivatives liquidation levels at $3000 and $3227, as they will directly influence the next directional move.