Precious metals continue to show strong momentum. Earlier analyses pointed to the 4500-4600 range, and indeed, the market surged at the opening today, breaking through 4601 to hit a new high!

The logic supporting this rally is quite clear. Expectations of rate cuts in 2026 are heating up, and real interest rates are being suppressed, which is naturally positive for gold, which has no yield. Global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, with Asian funds performing particularly well, reflecting the genuine bets of institutional investors from a side angle. The correlation between Shanghai Gold and international gold prices is becoming increasingly tight, forming a relatively solid upward support.

However, it’s also important to recognize the risks. Short-term volatility does exist, and this wave of gains includes a significant component of geopolitical premiums. Some institutional voices see $4800 as an attractive target, but once geopolitical sentiment cools, a correction could come quickly. Many have fallen into this trap—chasing highs and then being shaken out. Instead of chasing the rally, it’s better to think carefully about your holding cycle, anchor to the long-term macro logic, and avoid being swayed by short-term emotions.