Saylor is hinting at increasing holdings again. Can BTC break through the key resistance of $94,900?

BTC today reports $91,395.88, up 0.93% in 24 hours. Behind this seemingly calm increase, there are underlying currents. From institutional accumulation expectations to regional capital differentiation, from policy reform dividends to on-chain signal anomalies, multiple factors are jointly driving this rally. The key question is whether this time it can break through the $94,900 technical resistance level and thus initiate a new upward cycle.

Institutional Accumulation Signals Reappear, Saylor’s “Hint” Mode

Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker-related information again on January 11. This move follows a clear historical pattern: based on past experience, MicroStrategy typically discloses Bitcoin accumulation data the day after releasing such information. In other words, next Monday (January 13) is very likely to be the official announcement of increased holdings.

What does this reflect? MicroStrategy, as the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, currently holds 673,783 BTC, with an average purchase price of $75,024, and a current value of $61.16 billion, with an unrealized gain of 20.98%. From $250 million in August 2020 to today’s $60.25 billion, this company exemplifies what “long-term optimism” means through concrete actions.

Saylor himself explicitly stated in the latest remarks that the best-performing assets over the past decade are digital intelligence (NVIDIA), digital credit (MicroStrategy), and digital capital (Bitcoin). This is not just casual talk but sets a benchmark for institutional investors.

Regional Capital Differentiation, U.S. Follow-up as a Breakthrough Key

On-chain data analysis shows an interesting phenomenon: Asian market funds have a stronger dominance over BTC price. Since December 19, 2025, Asian capital has been actively involved, and after BTC retested $85,000 twice, it has driven the current rebound.

However, there is an important condition: funds from the Americas have not yet actively entered. This means the current rebound is relatively limited, mostly driven by Asian capital’s self-interpretation. Historically, the follow-up of U.S. funds will create a powerful push for the market. If U.S. capital starts to move in the next few days, the probability of BTC breaking through $94,900 will significantly increase.

Policy Dividends Stimulate Incremental Demand, Japan’s April as a Key Time Point

Japan’s Financial Services Agency plans to introduce cryptocurrency regulation reforms in April 2026. This is not a simple policy adjustment but a reclassification. After the reform, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will be reclassified as financial products, with the most critical change being a significant reduction in tax rates from marginal income tax rates of 43-55% to 20%.

The significance of this policy change cannot be underestimated. For Japanese market participants, reducing the tax rate from 55% to 20% means the efficiency of holding Bitcoin’s returns will more than double. This will inevitably stimulate buying motivation in the Japanese market and provide potential support for Bitcoin prices. Considering Japan’s role as a major global participant in crypto assets, this policy reform could have substantial impact in the coming months.

On-Chain Signal Anomalies, Satoshi Miner Transfers Indicate Turning Points

An easily overlooked but significant signal is: a Satoshi-era miner transferred 2,000 BTC. This is the first transfer since November 2024, when Bitcoin was around $91,000.

Historical experience suggests that transfers by Satoshi-era miners often occur at critical market turning points. These early miners hold very small amounts of Bitcoin, and any movement can represent market participants’ judgment of future trends. Currently, BTC hovers around $91,395, and this transfer may signal that the market is entering a new development phase.

Technical Resistance and Liquidation Dynamics

In the past 24 hours, over $100 million in total network futures contracts were liquidated, with long positions dominating, and over $14 million of long liquidations. This reflects differing market opinions on direction.

More importantly, the technical resistance level: if BTC breaks through the $94,900 zone, the total liquidation of short positions on major exchanges could reach $850 million. This means that $94,900 is not only a technical resistance but also a concentrated point for shorting costs. Breaking this level is challenging, but once surpassed, it could trigger a wave of short covering, further pushing prices higher.

Summary

Behind today’s 0.93% increase in BTC, there is a resonance of multiple factors: institutional accumulation expectations provide psychological support, continuous Asian capital inflows support funding, Japan’s policy reform offers future incremental expectations, and Satoshi miner transfers provide on-chain signals.

In the short term, two key points to watch are: whether U.S. capital follows in and whether BTC can effectively break through the $94,900 technical resistance. If both conditions are met, BTC could see a larger upward move. Otherwise, a correction may be imminent. Currently, the market is in a “wait-and-see” phase, and the next few days’ performance will determine the trend.