Recently, I've heard people say that the crypto market has grown in size over the past two years, and the market maturity is also different. The idea that history won't repeat itself with a sharp crash like a 50% cut sounds reasonable, but in reality, it's just that the recent two or three months have been uneventful, and the perspective is too short.

Looking at a longer timeframe, bear market cycles often last half a year or even longer. The market tends to form a huge U-shaped bottom, with the cumulative decline still being staggering. The last cycle saw a 77% drop from top to bottom. This time, the decline might be smaller, but a 60%+ correction is basically standard — and that's just for Bitcoin. As for those altcoins? Don't expect them to have a bottom line. My personal plan is to prepare for a decline of over 50%.

Financial markets never follow predictable rules. Even the US stock market can occasionally drop 40% in one go, and with the volatility in crypto, how good can it really get?

**History loves to repeat itself.** The source of disasters is often investor complacency. When a bull market lasts two or three years without significant corrections, or a bear market persists for a year or two without a rebound, human nature starts to take over — thinking that this time might really be different, that a sharp drop or surge will never come. As a result, crises catch people off guard, and financial crises unfold just like that.

This is the other side of a crisis — opportunity. Those who make money are always the ones who decisively exit when most people are suffering heavy losses, completing their positioning.

The strategy is actually simple: defend when others attack, attack when others defend. When prices are oscillating at high levels above the annual line and many are shouting bull market, you should quietly withdraw. When prices fall below the annual line and the market is crying out in despair, that's the moment you should truly take action.